Showing posts with label Indian Markets Outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indian Markets Outlook. Show all posts

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 06 to 09.09.2016 Positive next week; infra companies may sustain gain

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 6.Sep.2016 to 9.Sep.2016
(Positive next week; infra companies may sustain gain)
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook – 06 to 09.09.2016 Seen range bound, bias negative


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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 06 to 09.09.2016 Positive next week; infra companies may sustain gain

( www.rupeedesk.in )

Benchmark indices are seen positive next week because sentiment remains buoyant after
announcement of new policy initiatives for the construction sector and robust sales numbers reported
by most automobile companies in August. The US non-farm payrolls data for August, released post
market hours yesterday, was weaker than expected but its impact on the Indian equities could be
diluted as Indian stock exchanges are closed Monday for Ganesh Chaturthi.

US non-farm payrolls rose by 151,000 last month, against The Wall Street Journal poll that had
projected a rise of 180,000 jobs. A strong growth in the world's largest economy would have
increased chances of interest rates being raised by the US Federal Reserve in September. Swiss
investment advisor Marc Faber told Cogencis that the US Fed is unlikely to raise rates, when it meets
later this month, as it comes ahead of Presidential elections in the country in November.

Next week, investors will eye earnings of Nifty 50 constituents Oil and Natural Gas Corp, GAIL India, Coal India and Bharat Heavy Electricals. Yesterday, the index gained 0.4% to end at 8809.65 points, while the Sensex ended 0.4% higher at 28532.11. Infrastructure companies are likely to extend gains next week, as the Union Cabinet cleared a proposal to release 75% of all dues stuck in appeals after arbitration award to construction companies in government contracts.

This move will help restart stalled projects and clear bank loans, which will ensure fresh lending for
the completion of projects. As a result, sentiment for banks, public-sector banks in particular, also
remains buoyant. We look at this as a positive development for the banking sector, as the delay in
payment has resulted in significant working capital shortfall that has been funded by banks. We
believes ICICI Bank and public-sector banks would be the biggest beneficiaries. Telecom companies--
Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular--are seen resuming their weak trend next week even after a rebound
yesterday, as the entry of Reliance Jio Infocomm will put pressure on their tariffs and profitability.

Year-to-date, Bharti Airtel has lost 6.3% while Idea Cellular has fallen 41.2%.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 29.Aug.2016 to 2.Sep.2016 (Seen subdued next week; Fed Yellen speech eyed)

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 29.Aug.2016 to 2.Sep.2016
(Seen subdued next week; Fed Yellen speech eyed)
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016 (PSU refiners seen mixed; IOC, BPCL earnings eyed)

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US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech later today and data on India's gross
domestic product for Apr-Jun, due to be released on Wednesday, would be the major
triggers for domestic equities next week. It is likely that equities will trade weak if both
events fail to provide a direction.

The market is awaiting comments from Yellen for a likely course of action at its Sep 21
meeting. If there is an indication of a rate hike by the central bank, foreign institutional
investors may sell on Monday. However, equities may gain if investors see Yellen's
speech as dovish.

Next week, the Nifty 50 is seen finding support at 8500 points, a technically adding that
it faces resistance at around 8690 points. Yesterday, the 51-stock index ended 0.2%
lower at 8572.55 points, while the S&P BSE Sensex closed at 27782.25, down 0.2%.
Market participants will also track the earnings of companies such as Bharat Petroleum
Corp, Indian Oil Corp, and DLF for the quarter ended June. BPCL is expected to report
a net profit of 21.49 bln rupees for Apr-Jun on Thursday.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 25.Jul.2016 to 29.Jul.2016 (Stock indices are set to continue their underlying positive bias next week)

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 25.Jul.2016 to 29.Jul.2016
(Stock indices are set to continue their underlying positive bias next week)
( www.rupeedesk.in )

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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 25 to 29.07.2016 (To take cues from company earnings next week)

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Stock indices are set to continue their underlying positive bias next week, in the backdrop of quarterly corporate earnings and expiry of the July futures and options derivatives contracts.
Nifty 50 companies announcing their earnings for Apr-Jun next week include ACC, Ambuja Cements, Asian Paints, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel, Bharti Infratel, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Eicher Motors, Housing Development Finance Corp, ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki India, YES Bank, and Zee Entertainment Enterprises.

While ICICI Bank's earnings will be tracked for its asset quality and credit growth, L&T's order inflow growth, guidance and operating margins will also be under investors' radar.

The week in the run-up to the expiry of the July futures and options series will keep the movement
volatile, as traders roll over positions from the current derivatives series to the August series. During
the week, the Nifty 50 is seen moving within a range of 8420-8620 points. Today, it ended at 8451.20, up 31.10 points or 0.4% from the previous close. The Sensex closed at 27803.24, up 92.72 points or 0.3% from the previous close.

So far this month, the index has risen 3%, as disappointment on the earnings of information
technology majors has been offset by strength in global markets. Globally, equities have been buoyant on hope that major central banks will maintain accommodative monetary policies in the wake of the UK's decision to exit the European Union. The US Federal Open Market Committee and Bank of Japan are scheduled to meet next week to detail their monetary policies.

On Monday, stocks of Axis Bank will be in focus, as the lender's asset quality deteriorated in Apr-Jun, and net profit came in at 15.5 bln rupees, sharply below the estimated 19.9 bln rupees. The fall,
however, may not be very sharp, as the stock has already factored in weak earnings, ending in the
red for the fourth consecutive session yesterday.

Vedanta and Cairn India will also be in focus on Monday. The former, in an apparent bid to sweeten
the deal for the latter's minority shareholders, approved revised terms for the merger of Cairn India
with Vedanta.

Vedanta said that apart from getting one equity share in the merged entity, Cairn India's minority
shareholders will also get four redeemable preference shares of 10-rupee face value "with a coupon of
7.5% and tenure of 18 months from issuance".Cairn India's minority shareholders will also get an
implied premium of 20% to the one-month volume weighted average price of a Cairn India share.
The deal will see shares of both companies react positively. It is likely to assuage Cairn India's
minority shareholders, while Vedanta stands to benefit from the merger on account of Cairn's cash on
books.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 18.Jul.2016 to 22.Jul.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 18.Jul.2016 to 22.Jul.2016
(Earnings, Parliament session key; RIL in focus)
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 18 to 22.07.2016 (Seen firm next week; pvt banks' results eyed)

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Apr-Jun earnings of key companies and the Monsoon Session of Parliament which starts Monday
would be key triggers for share indices next week, even as investors monitor the trend in global
markets. Underlying bias of equities remains positive, despite yesterday’s decline. However, sharp
gains in equities over the last month which took indices to their 11-month highs on Thursday are seen
capping the rise in share indices.

The Nifty 50 is seen testing the psychologically-important level of 8600 points next week, above
which it could rise towards the resistance of 8700 points, a technical based. Yesterday, the Nifty 50
closed at 8541.40 points, down 0.3%, while the S&P BSE Sensex ended down 0.4% at 27836.50.
Next week, Hindustan Unilever, UltraTech Cement, Wipro, HDFC Bank, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank,
and Axis Bank will be reporting their earnings for the June quarter. On Monday, the initial trigger for
the market would be Reliance Industries' robust quarterly earnings, following which investors would
shift focus to the Monsoon Session of Parliament.

Reliance Industries has yesterday reported a net profit of 75.5 bln rupees, sharply higher than estimate of 65.4 bln rupees. The company's gross refining margins in Apr-Jun came in at $11.5 per barrel. Investors would hope for the passage of the Constitutional Amendment Bill to introduce the Goods and Services Tax in the Monsoon Session of Parliament. According to reports, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Ananth Kumar today met Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha, Ghulam Nabi Azad, to resolve issues surrounding the passage of the Bill to roll out the Goods and Services Tax with an aim to build consensus on the issue.

On Monday, shares of Monsanto India would also be in focus after thecompany, after market hours
today, said its parent company received a revised takeover bid from Germany's Bayer AG.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
Posted by

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 11.Jul.2016 to 15.Jul.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 11.Jul.2016 to 15.Jul.2016
(Economic data, Apr-Jun results key triggers next week)
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 11 to 15.07.2016

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 11 to 15.07.2016

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 11 to 15.07.2016

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 11 to 15.07.2016

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 11 to 15.07.2016

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week - 11 to 15.07.2016

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 11 to 15.07.2016




Given the satisfactory progress of the monsoon in the country so far, stock indices are seen trading
with a positive bias next week, with corporate earnings for Apr-Jun and key economic data driving the trend in domestic stocks. Among Nifty 50 constituents, IndusInd Bank, Infosys, Reliance Industries and Tata Consultancy Services are scheduled to detail their Apr-Jun earnings during the coming week.

Data on Consumer Price Index-based inflation for June, as well as that on the Index of Industrial
Production for May will be released on Tuesday. On Thursday, data on Wholesale Price Index-based
inflation is to be released. India's headline inflation, based on the CPI, had risen to a 21-month high of 5.76% in May from 5.47% a month ago, while annual inflation based on the WPI rose to 0.79% in May from 0.34% a month ago.

Next week, the Nifty 50 is seen trading in the range of 8200-8500 points, with immediate support at
8280 points. Today, the index ended at 8323.20, down 14.70 points or 0.2% from the previous close.
The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 27126.90, down 74.59 points or 0.3% from Thursday.

Among stocks, stocks of pharmaceutical companies are seen extending gains, as recent approvals and
news of inspection clearances for select companies has lifted sentiment for the sector. Yesterday Alembic Pharmaceuticals and Cadila Healthcare ended 3.3% and 5% higher, respectively, after both companies received establishment inspection reports from the US Food and Drug Administration for one unit each. Lupin, however, said the US FDA had issued Form 483 to its Dabhasa plant in Gujarat and made two observations, following an inspection carried out during Jun 29-Jul 6.

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 4.Jul.2016 to 8.Jul.2016 (Positive next week; Bosch, auto sector in focus)

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 4.Jul.2016 to 8.Jul.2016

 Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 04 to 08.07.2016

 Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 04 to 08.07.2016

 Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 04to 08.07.2016

 Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week -04 to 08.07.2016

 Auto Stocks Outlook for the week -04 to 08.07.2016

 Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 04 TO 08.07.2016

 Oil Stocks Outlook for the week- 04 to 08.07.2016

 FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 04 to 08.07.2016

 IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 04 to 08.07.2016

 Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 04 to 08.07.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 4.Jul.2016 to 8.Jul.2016
(Positive next week; Bosch, auto sector in focus)
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


The stock indices are seen trading with a positive bias next week as sentiment continues to be buoyed by the recovery in global markets and the satisfactory progress of the monsoon. The recent government policy initiatives and moves to increase investment in the infrastructure sector are also seen lifting sentiment.

The implementation of Seventh Pay Commission, good development in monsoon and revised capex (capital expenditure) in road and railway has increased expectation on corporate earnings in the medium-term. According to India Meteorological Department, the country received 145.4mm of rain in June, about 11% below the normal weighted average of 163.6 mm for the month. The weather bureau had earlier said rainfall in June would be "slightly below-normal".

In 2014 and 2015, India received 12% and 14% below-normal rains, respectively. Among, shares of automobile companies are seen in focus as they detail their monthly sales numbers for June. The shares of TVS Motor are seen gaining as the company's total sales in June jumped to 247,085 units from 222,017 units a year ago. Shares of Reliance Industries and State Bank of India will also be in focus as the two have entered into a 70:30 joint venture to set up a payments bank.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 13.Jun.2016 to 17.Jun.2016 (Economic data, US Fed policy key triggers next week)

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 13.Jun.2016 to 17.Jun.2016
(Economic data, US Fed policy key triggers next week)
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


The key domestic economic data, outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee meet, and result of the MSCI index review will drive equity markets in the coming week. While industrial growth data for April is due, inflation data for May based on both the Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index will be announced on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.

Any negative development will trigger selling, but market participants do not see the 8000-point mark being broken on Nifty 50. The growth in India's industrial production is likely to rise to 1.0% in April from 0.1% a month ago, on the back of an improvement in core sectors.

The IIP data will not have a major impact but there might be a knee-jerk reaction if it is below expectations. Market participants are expecting the CPI inflation to be in the range of 5.3-5.5% this time. After the Reserve Bank of India, in its monetary policy, cited upside risks to inflation, the to be released data is crucial as it may decide the future course of action to be taken by the central bank on key interest rates.

In April, consumer price inflation had risen to a three-month high of 5.39%, primarily due to a rise in food prices. On the global front, investors are uncertain about the policy action of the US Federal Reserve in the backdrop of Chair Janet Yellen's recent comments and the country's jobs report data for May. The market capitalisation of A-shares is the second highest after US stocks. Inclusion of
these shares will see foreign funds shifting money from emerging markets to these shares.
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 6.Jun.2016 to 10.Jun.2016 (RBI policy in focus next week; bias positive)

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 6.Jun.2016 to 10.Jun.2016
(RBI policy in focus next week; bias positive)
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

The Reserve Bank of India's bi-monthly monetary policy will be the focus next week for the equities market, and any positive commentary or move by the Indian central bank will provide a further leg-up to the current momentum in stocks. Although the unanimous opinion is that the RBI will maintain a status quo on rates, direction on further interest rates, and more importantly, governor Raghuram Rajan's second term at the RBI will be watched.

Due to a number of macro events slated and its inclination towards having a better clarity on inflation trajectory the Reserve Bank may choose to repeat its commitment towards having a accommodative policy based on its inflation expectation. The Reports that Rajan is not "interested" in a second tenure at RBI had driven capital markets have been edgy earlier this week. RBI will detail its monetary policy on Tuesday. The Benchmark indices tested their seven-month highs intraday, ending the second consecutive week with gains. This data is important, and will be a key indictor for shares on Monday, as it gives hints about the US Federal Open Market Committee's likely action on interest rates.

The US Federal Reserve will start its two-day monetary policy meeting on the 14th of this month. Reports suggest that the US central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates in the June meeting as it awaits Britain's referendum on its membership in the European Union. For domestic shares, the progress of the monsoon will also be pivotal. On Friday, there may be some caution in equities ahead of the release of the Industrial production data for April.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 09.May.2016 to 13.May.2016 Seen up; key Jan-Mar earnings to be in focus

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 09.May.2016 to 13.May.2016
Seen up; key Jan-Mar earnings to be in focus
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Global markets are likely to dictate the trend for benchmark share indices next week, with the Jan-   Mar earnings of key companies likely to keep the action stock-specific. The underlying bias for
equities is positive after the indices declined significantly this week. This week, the index declined
1.5% to 7733.45 points. Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended flat in a volatile session, as investors
cautiously awaited data on US non-farm payrolls for April. The S&P 500 futures extended losses and
were down 0.5%, against 0.3% earlier, as lower additions of non-farm jobs stoked fear that the US
economy may not be in the pink of health. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were also  down 0.5%.

In April, 160,000 non-farm jobs were added, lower than the 215,000 added in March. At 5.0%, the
unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous month. In India, market participants remain
positive about the economy, even while keeping an eye on weak global markets. The recent correction in equities has led investors to reallocate their portfolios, and they are going long on the
banking sector. Market participants are also positive about the automobile sector, especially after
most companies reported robust sales numbers for April.

EARNINGS WATCH

Corporate earnings for Jan-Mar will be a crucial factor for markets next week, with five Nifty 50
constituents--Hindustan Unilever, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Asian Paints, Kotak Mahindra Bank
and Dr Reddy's Laboratories--reporting their earnings. Grasim Industries will report its earnings on
Saturday. Index heavyweight Hindustan Unilever is expected to report a 1% fall in quarterly net
profit at 10.1 bln rupees on Monday. Yesterday, the stock ended up 0.4% at 853.40 rupees. Stocks

of Dr Reddy's Laboratories, which will report its earnings on Thursday, are seen trading with a negative bias. Yesterday, the stock ended down 2.2% at 2,866.30 rupees. Other companies reporting their Jan-Mar earnings next week are SRF, Apollo Tyres, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, Havells India, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, and Nestle India.
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 18.Apr.2016 to 22.Apr.2016

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 18.Apr.2016 to 22.Apr.2016
 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Earnings of key companies--Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Cairn India, and HDFC Bank--for the quarter ended March will give direction to share indices next week. Investor sentiment and the bias for equities remains positive after benchmark indices ended at a three-month high last week,

Technically, The Nifty 50 may test the psychological level of 8000 points, if it crosses its immediate resistance of 7920 points. Last trading day, hope of a good monsoon and benign inflation lifted the index up 141.50 points or 1.8% to 7850.45, its highest level since Jan 1.

The 50-stock index breached its 50-day exponential moving average of 7770 points wednesday, and now finds support at that level. On Monday, global markets would be an important factor for equities as investors come back after an extended weekend on account of Ambedkar Jayanti on Thursday and Ram Navami on Friday.

RESULTS EYED

The information technology giant is likely to report a 3% sequential rise in its Jan-Mar consolidated net profit to 35.5 bln rupees. Other IT majors—Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro--will report their earnings on Monday and Apr 20, respectively.

TCS is seen reporting a 3% sequential growth in its Jan-Mar consolidated net profit to
62.87 bln rupees, boosted by foreign exchange gains and a 4% expansion in topline. Cairn India and HDFC Bank will report their earnings on Apr 22.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in )
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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 21.Mar.2016 to 25.Mar.2016 Seen firm in truncated week; Nifty 50 eyes 7700

 Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 21.Mar.2016 to 25.Mar.2016
Seen firm in truncated week; Nifty 50 eyes 7700
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Share indices are likely to continue the up move in a truncated upcoming week, and market
participants expect National Stock Exchange's Nifty 50 to test 7700 points after it topped a two-month high yesterday.

Next week, Nifty 50 is seen facing resistance at 7600 points, and a breach of this level would begin the start of a new bull market. Yesterday, Nifty 50 ended at 7604.35, up 91.80 points or 1.2% from the previous close. This week, the index has ended 1.2% higher. S&P BSE's Sensex gained 275.37 points or 1.1% to end at 24952.74.

Foreign institutional investors yesterday net bought Indian equities worth 17.13 bln rupees. The
continuous inflow of foreign funds and pick up in the Chinese market has created a positive sentiment in the market. FIIs have been net buyers of Indian shares for the last three consecutive sessions. Markets will remain shutting for Holi on Thursday, and for Good Friday.

IN-FOCUS STOCKS

The stocks in Pharma (pharmaceutical) sector are witnessing continuous fear from the US FDA (US
Food and Drug Administration) division for violation in the best manufacturing practices. This has
resulted into reasonable valuations in the entire sector throwing value-based buying opportunities for
the long term investors. Yesterday, the stock hit a 52-week low to end at 1,554.40 rupees. Banks are
likely to gain next week on expectation of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India before its next
monetary policy meet in April.

Cement stocks are expected to gain further, due to positive sentiment for the sector, as prices have
shown an uptick after a few subdued quarters. Analysts are also upbeat on the sector's performance, as they expect earnings to recover over 2016-18 (Apr-Mar) on volume growth and price stability. Stocks of Welspun India will be in focus, as the Maharashtra government levied value added tax of 5.5% on terry towels in its Budget, yesterday. Marico's shares will also be eyed as the state government increased value added tax on up to 500 ml coconut hair oil pack to 12.5%.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
Posted by

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 8.Mar.2016 to 11.Mar.2016 Seen Uptrend Next Week

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 8.Mar.2016 to 11.Mar.2016
(Seen Continue Uptrend Next Week)
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 



Equities are expected to continue their journey northwards next week after registering
stellar gains this week, but may also see some intermediate consolidation. Despite
seesawing between gains and losses during the day, benchmark indices managed a
positive finish for the fourth consecutive session yesterday, ending at a one-month
high. Indices ended the week with over 6% gains.

The positive bias also comes from the fact that foreign institutional investors have
turned net buyers during the week. National Stock Exchange's Nifty 50 ended at
7485.35, up 9.75 points or 0.1% after touching an intraday high of 7505.90 points.
S&P BSE's Sensex closed at 24646.48, up 39.49 points or 0.2%. Next week is a
shorter week, as stock markets will remain shutting on Monday for Mahashivratri.

Data points globally and on the domestic front will lend cues to shares next week.
Investors globally are waiting for the US non-farm payrolls data for February, due
later yesterday, before taking any further bullish bets in emerging markets. The data is
important as it will provide some indication as to whether the US Federal Reserve will
be slow in raising interest rates in future.

On the domestic front, the industrial production and consumer price inflation data will
be in focus. Following the Union Budget for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar), the market has been
hoping for an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India. If the economic data
throws some positive surprise, then the prospects for a rate cut will get stronger.

Stock, Sector Watch

Bank stocks are seen gaining further next week, with the Nifty Bank set to rise by
another 200 points. Yesterday, the Nifty Bank index ended up 1% at 15339.20 points,
while Nifty PSU Bank closed up 3.3% at 2388.75. Sentiment in the sector was
positive on expectation that the government will announce a slew of measures on
Saturday pertaining to recapitalisation, asset quality resolution and also provide
clarity on consolidation in the sector following the two-day Gyan Sangam meet.

Stocks of telecom companies may continue to decline due to ambiguity over the call
drop compensation case, as the Supreme Court has refused to grant any interim relief
to the companies against Delhi High Court's order to make companies compensate
subscribers for call drops from Jan 1
Posted by

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 29.Feb.2016 to 04.Mar.2016 (Union Budget to direct market trend next week)

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 29.Feb.2016 to 04.Mar.2016
(Union Budget to direct market trend next week)
( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


The Union Budget for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar) will direct the trend in
domestic equities on Monday, and will have a bearing on trade in the rest
of the week as well. Following a lacklustre Railway Budget, market
participants do not expect any major fireworks in the Union Budget, to be
presented by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley at 1100 IST on Monday.

Whether Jaitley sticks to the fiscal consolidation roadmap he laid down
last year is one of the major questions playing on the minds of investors.
The government is aiming at reducing fiscal deficit to 3.5% of the gross
domestic product in 2016-17, and 3.0% in 2017-18.

For the current year, the fiscal deficit is pegged at 3.9% of GDP.

As RBI governor's decision to cut rate will be linked to government
remaining on the fiscal prudence path, any deviation in fiscal deficit will
be a negative for interest rate sensitives.

Due to distress in rural India after two successive years of deficient
monsoon, market participants also expect the Budget to focus on schemes
to alleviate their concerns.

The FM's (finance minister's) priority in the 2016-17 Budget will be
higher growth, with fiscal rectitude, we believe. Long term capital gains
tax is another key factor that will be watched out for. Currently, Indian
investors are exempted from tax on capital gains on shares sold after one
year of holding.

Any move to increase the holding period from currently 1 year to 3
years could amplify the weak sentiments in the markets.

Among global factors, trend in overseas markets and movement in crude oil prices will be eyed next week.

Ahead of the Budget, domestic stock indices ended up nearly 1% as
the government's Economic Survey for 2015-16 indicated that the
government may go easy on the fiscal deficit stance if it helps to spur
growth.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in )
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