GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Indian Markets Outlook for the week - 25.11.2013 - 29.11.2013

www.rupeedesk.in

As indices enter expiry week of futures and options, market participants expect trade to be volatile in the run up to contract expiries on Thursday. Traders will remain cautious and refrain from taking any major positions due to expected volatility. Post expiry on Thursday, investor focus will shift to the gross domestic product growth estimate for Jul-Sep to be detailed by the Central Statistics Office. Yesterday, stock indices ended slightly weak after a choppy session, led by losses in stocks of automobiles, real estate, metals, and fast moving consumer goods makers. National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty ended at 5995.45 points, down 3.60 points or 0.1%. S&P BSE's Sensex also ended down 0.1% at 20217.39 points. MCX's SX-40 ended at 12026.16 points, up 17.88 points or 0.1%. 

We broadly see Nifty in the 5900-6200 range next week. Volatility is already taking a heavy toll on traders, and F&O (futures and options) expiry in the coming week would further add to their worries from that front. We are reiterating our advice for traders to maintain hedge positions irrespective of direction of the trade and opt for stock specific approach. Banks are seen mirroring indices next week and hence are likely to be volatile.  

Yesterday, Bank Nifty ended at 10677.35 points, down 29.55 points or 0.3%. Axis Bank, however, is likely to rise as the bank will replace Jindal Steel and Power on Sensex from Nov 23. Jindal Steel, on the other hand, may be weak due to its exclusion from the 30-scrip index. Stocks of Valecha Engineering are likely to rise as the company has bagged an order worth 1.76 bln rupees from NHPC. Real estate and pharmaceutical companies may also rise as the Cabinet panel on Monday will consider relaxing foreign direct investment norms for these sectors. DIC India are likely to rise as the promoter has proposed to delist stocks of the company at an indicative price of 260 rupees per share. Yesterday, stocks of DIC India ended at 235.50 rupees, up 4.6%. Siemens stocks are also likely to rise as the company has posted profit in Jul-Sep, compared to a loss in the year-ago period.