India Market Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016
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The domestic shares are likely to be volatile next week, with key global and domestic events coming up. Investors will particularly watch out for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review and the outcome of Italy's constitutional referendum. Although Sunday's constitutional referendum in Italy is seen as a non-event by most market participants, any major sell-off in the European markets after the outcome may trigger selling in domestic shares too. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has pledged to resign if the electorate rejects his proposals to bring about changes in the country's Constitution. In the event of Renzi resigning, the Five Star Movement--which favours Italy leaving the European Union--may gain support of Italian voters. If the referendum's outcome in Italy creates political uncertainties in the Eurozone, especially in the financial sector, it is something the market has not discounted. On the domestic front, most market participants expect at least a 25 basis points rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India at its bi-monthly monetary policy on Wednesday, particularly after the government's decision to withdraw the legal tender status of higher denomination currency notes. If the RBI has to provide support, then it should cut rates by 50 bps, in which case the equity market will remain positive until the US Federal Reserve's meet in mid-December," said Vinod Nair. If the rate cut is below 50 bps, then there may be a sell-off in domestic shares. Markets also await US' non-farm payrolls data for November, which will be detailed. The non-farm payrolls data is crucial as it may indicate the future course of action of the US central bank on interest rates in December. Among stock, banks will be in focus as the RBI will detail its monetary policy. Ashoka Buildcon is seen rising on Monday, as the company reported a net profit of 453.4 mln rupees, up from 312.8 mln rupees a year ago. KEC International may also gain as the company has won orders worth 8.40 bln rupees.
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India Market Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016
The domestic shares are likely to be volatile next week, with key global and domestic events coming up. Investors will particularly watch out for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review and the outcome of Italy's constitutional referendum. Although Sunday's constitutional referendum in Italy is seen as a non-event by most market participants, any major sell-off in the European markets after the outcome may trigger selling in domestic shares too. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has pledged to resign if the electorate rejects his proposals to bring about changes in the country's Constitution. In the event of Renzi resigning, the Five Star Movement--which favours Italy leaving the European Union--may gain support of Italian voters. If the referendum's outcome in Italy creates political uncertainties in the Eurozone, especially in the financial sector, it is something the market has not discounted. On the domestic front, most market participants expect at least a 25 basis points rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India at its bi-monthly monetary policy on Wednesday, particularly after the government's decision to withdraw the legal tender status of higher denomination currency notes. If the RBI has to provide support, then it should cut rates by 50 bps, in which case the equity market will remain positive until the US Federal Reserve's meet in mid-December," said Vinod Nair. If the rate cut is below 50 bps, then there may be a sell-off in domestic shares. Markets also await US' non-farm payrolls data for November, which will be detailed. The non-farm payrolls data is crucial as it may indicate the future course of action of the US central bank on interest rates in December. Among stock, banks will be in focus as the RBI will detail its monetary policy. Ashoka Buildcon is seen rising on Monday, as the company reported a net profit of 453.4 mln rupees, up from 312.8 mln rupees a year ago. KEC International may also gain as the company has won orders worth 8.40 bln rupees.
