GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week (18 - 22.03.2013)

www.rupeedesk.in

Stocks of the three state-owned oil marketing companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd--are seen opening firm next week, as they are expected to announce a hike in diesel prices on Saturday. Diesel rates would be increased in line with the government direction in January letting the stateowned oil companies to increase diesel prices in small quantum every month to wipe out the revenue losses. The oil companies have increased diesel prices twice by around 50 paisa per litre each after the government direction. The Street is expecting another increase by a similar quantum. A hike will be a sentimental boost for the stocks early in the week. However, movement in the stocks in the latter half of the week will depend on the broad market trend. The market is expected to take cues from the RBI's mid-quarter monetary policy review on Tuesday. Most market participants expect the central bank to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points. The state-owned oil marketing companies also are likely to cut petrol price by around 1 rupee per litre in line with the global trend. Besides, the rupee has remained stable at around 54 rupees per dollar level this week while crude prices have been consistently declining. This trend is seen as a positive for the oil companies in the long term, as it will help reduce the revenue losses on subsidised fuels. Continued decline in crude oil prices also may give a leg up to the three stocks. The focus will be more on Bharat Petroleum because of the ongoing auction for the sale of 20% interest in Mozambique's Rovuma basin block. Operator Anadarko and Videocon Industries plan to sell 10% each in the block. Bharat Petroleum's arm Bharat PetroResources Ltd has a 10% interest in the block. The valuation of Anadarko and Videocon's stakes will also help investors arrive at a definite valuation for BPCL's stake. Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd and Oil India Ltd have also put in bids for picking up 20% in the block and the outcome, depending on the valuation, may have an impact on these two stocks in the near term.