GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week - 22.07.2013 to 26.07.2013

www.rupeedesk.in

Reliance Industries Ltd's stocks are likely to open weak on Monday and trade in a narrow range with a negative bias next week, as the performance of its core businesses during Apr-Jun was less than satisfactory. The company, however, managed better-than-expected net profit, riding on a sharp rise in other incomes.
The stock is likely to remain range bound in the near term and is unlikely to see more than 1-2% variance from current levels.

RIL's Q1 PAT at 53.5 bln rupees in line with Street expectation, but EBITDA at 71 bln rupees disappoints, other income higher than estimates makes up for the disappointment on EBITDA. Petchem margins at 8.6% flat QoQ disappoint as well. GRMs as per expectation at $8.4/bbl.

According to an average of estimates, RIL's net profit in Apr-Jun was seen rising 17% at 52.11 bln rupees, but the turnover was expected to decline 4% at 879.13 bln rupees. Shares of Cairn India are also expected to see range bound trade next week, at least till it details Apr-Jun earnings on Wednesday.

Shares of state-owned oil marketing companies may shed some of the gains accumulated this week due to the firming up of crude oil prices and continuing weakness of the Indian currency. US crude oil futures touched a 16-month high on Thursday and were trading above $109 a barrel.

The rupee ended higher against the US dollar, as state-owned banks are believed to have sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India. However, we feel the overall sentiment on the rupee is weak and any softening from the current rate will have a negative impact on the oil marketing counters.