GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Indian Markets Outlook for the week - 21.10.2013 - 25.10.2013

www.rupeedesk.in

Stock indices are likely to rise further next week, having closed at a near three-year high yesterday with the National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty topping its crucial 6200-level intraday. Investors will focus on companies reporting their earnings for the quarter ended Sep 30 in the coming week. However, some market players expect the gains to be limited by profit booking at 6230 level. If it holds this level, Nifty is likely to test 6250. Traders see the Nifty moving in the 6100-6230 range next week. Yesterday, led by gains in banks and metals, the Nifty ended at 6189.35, up 143.05 points or 2.4% from close Thursday, after touching a low of 6070.90 and high of 6201.45 intraday. The S&P BSE Sensex closed at 20882.89, up 467.38 points or 2.3%. The index moved between 20486.78 and 20932.23 intraday. MCX Stock Exchange's SX40 ended at 12416.36, up 237.07 points or 1.9% after moving between 12175.89 and 12426.02 intraday. 

On Monday, market is likely to open on a positive note aided by index major Larsen & Toubro's Jul-Sep earnings that surprised the Street. The capital goods and engineering major reported a net profit of 9.78 bln rupees for the quarter ended Sep 30, up 7% on year, beating analysts' estimate of 9.10 bln rupees. On the guidance front, R. Shankar Raman, the company's chief financial officer, said that 2013-14 (Apr-Mar) order inflow growth guidance of 20% looked "fairly accomplishable" and that the margin and net profit is likely to improve going forward. 

We see the Nifty heading to 6250, surpassing which 6280 may be on cards. However, we expects the index to consolidate if it does not sustain above 6230-level. Immediate support for the index is seen at 6125 points, falling below which the Nifty could test the 6100-level. He expects L&T stocks to rise to 925 rupees on Monday, and stocks of other companies in the sector to trade with a positive momentum. Among other sectors, banks are likely to extend gains next week on hopes of a further cut in Marginal Standing Facility rate after the rupee rose to an over a two-month high of 60.90000 a dollar yesterday. 

But profit booking at higher levels is likely to limit gains. Stocks of metal companies are also likely to extend gains next week as China's improving economy has raised hopes of increasing demand from one of the world's largest metal consumers. Trade is likely to be subdued in shares of fast moving consumer goods, information technology and pharmaceutical companies. 

On the earnings front, the Nifty companies detailing their Jul-Sep results next week are UltraTech Cement, Asian Paints, Housing Development Finance Corp, Cairn India, Wipro, YES Bank, ACC, Ambuja Cements, Hero Motocorp, Power Grid Corp of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, NMDC, GAIL India, ICICI Bank and ITC.