GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week - 21.10.2013 - 25.10.2013

www.rupeedesk.in

Shares of the state-owned oil marketing companies are seen range bound with a positive bias next week, while Reliance Industries Ltd shares are expected to consolidate gains. The rupee has stabilised against the dollar and is likely to remain positive in near term.

The Reserve Bank of India's clarification on continuing with the window for foreign exchange swap transactions opened to meet the complete daily dollar requirement of the three public sector oil marketing companies may lend strength to the Indian currency.

The losses incurred by Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd on sales of subsidised fuels such as diesel, kerosene, and cooking gas have been coming down during the last one month. In the current fortnight, these companies will lose only 10.24 rupees per ltr on sale of diesel, which is lower compared with 10.51 rupees in the previous fortnight and 14.50 rupees prior to that.

The price of Indian crude basket too has come down to around $108 a barrel from an average $109.50 per barrel last month. The rupee hit a two-month high yesterday and is expected to open steady to marginally higher next week. If it appreciates further, shares of oil companies too may follow.

Shares of Reliance Industries are seen in the positive territory after Oil Minister Veerappa Moily yesterday said his ministry planned to soon take to the Cabinet the contentious matter of revising the price of gas from the KG-D6 block.

The issue has been weighing on the company's stock for the past few months and matters got complicated as a result of the company confronting the ministry and the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons over allegations that it had deliberately suppressed output. Moily's comments are seen as an indication that the government will move to resolve these issues amicably and expeditiously.