GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week - 09.12.2013 - 13.12.2013

www.rupeedesk.in

Stocks of major automakers will move in line with the broader market, which will be highly influenced by the election results of four states to be out on Sunday. The election frenzy is going to drive the stocks, all stocks. Results of assembly elections of five states--Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Delhi--seen as the semi-finals before the general elections next year, are due to be out on Sunday and Monday. If the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) wins in three out of the five states also, the markets will rally. If that happens the auto stocks will rally too as the auto sector has high beta. 

We bet high on two-wheeler stocks as agri (agriculture) growth has been good and monsoon also. Bajaj Auto Ltd will trade range bound next week and will continue to lose to Honda Motorcycles Ltd in terms of sales in the near term. Hero MotorCorp Ltd is still good on numbers, and it will be positive for the next couple of weeks. It will have an edge over Bajaj Auto, Arora observed. If the various exit polls are to be believed, then a change in power is likely, which will see the markets rally. The markets will rally in the hope of better growth of the economy which in turn will make the auto sector grow. 

If the markets go up, then Maruti (Suzuki India Ltd) will be the first to rally. The counter of Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd is likely to trade range-bound. Its tractor business continues to do well, but the commercial vehicle segment is facing pressure. Tata Motors Ltd's subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover's November global vehicle sales are expected to be out next week. JLR sold a total of 166 vehicles in India in November as against 178 units a year ago. The company's sales in India witnessed a decline for the first time in the last six months in November. However, on a cumulative basis the company's sales in India have grown 23% in Jun-Nov to 1,333 vehicles in India. Its November US sales stood at 6,047 units, up 37% on year. The numbers of China and UK will now be the key drivers for the stock. Analysts are expecting a 13-14% rise in the November vehicle sales in wholesale segment.