Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 27.Jun.2016 to 1.Jul.2016
To recover next week; F&O rollovers eyed
( www.rupeedesk.in )
Indian equities are likely to recoup losses made on account of the UK's vote to exit the European
Union and show resilience in the coming week since the focus is seen shifting to domestic triggers
such as the progress of monsoon. Market participants believe the impact of 'Brexit' is not likely to
sustain and the underlying bias is positive, although the market will closely monitor global
developments, particularly in Europe.
Volatility is likely as the June derivative series will expire on Thursday, with investors rolling over their positions to the July series. The fact that markets recovered partially shows that the worst is over. This is a good opportunity to buy on dips.
During the week, Nifty 50 is seen trading in the range of 8000-8300 points. Yesterday, the index
ended well above the 8000-mark at 8088.60, but down 181.85 points or 2.2%. Intraday, the index
touched a low of 7927.05 points. After falling to the day's low of 25911.33, the Sensex ended at
26397.71, down 604.51 points or 2.2%. The June futures of Nifty 50 settled at 8086.90 yesterday, at
a discount of 1.7 points to the spot index, compared with the 13-point discount intraday as short
positions got covered. Open interest in the contract fell 15.43% to 13.44 mln. We seen the reaction
in the global markets to the UK referendum is an exaggerated one. Any reaction of this sort presents
a buying opportunity.
Trends in the global markets and monsoon will also lend cues to shares next week. The progress of
monsoon so far is satisfactory. Another positive is the latest policy announcements to encourage FDI
in several sectors. It is also noted that midcaps have been fairly resilient through the fall yesterday.
Sectors looking positive on Agriculture and consumption-related stocks, while it is bearish on
companies that have exposure to the UK, such as Tata Motors, Tata Steel and selected pharmaceutical companies. Another positive that the market may see on account of the UK's exit is the fall in commodity prices, particularly crude oil. This fall will aid reduction of India's current account deficit and also inflation rates which would create room for the Reserve Bank of India to ease interest rates.
Among stocks, stocks of Tata Motors are seen extending losses and may fall up to 400 rupees in the
short-term. According to reports, the company's UK-based arm Jaguar Land Rover's annual profits
could fall by 1 bln pound sterling up till 2020 due to 'Brexit'. JLR contributes 90% to Tata Motors'
revenues, while the UK market contributes 20% of the sales. Yesterday, the stock was the worst hit on Nifty 50, down nearly 8% at 449.40 rupees.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
