Energy Sector Analysis – K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training -14.03.2025
Energy Sector Analysis – K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training -14.03.2025
Energy Sector Analysis – K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training -14.03.2025
NIFTYENERGY Sector Analysis – 14.03.2025
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant Key Factors Affecting & Reasons:
- Price Action: The index has been declining from recent highs and is now testing key support zones near long-term moving averages.
- Volume: Increased volumes suggest active selling, but the trend needs confirmation for either a breakdown or reversal.
- Indicators:
- RSI (36.03): Approaching oversold territory, indicating possible exhaustion of selling pressure.
- ADX (41.09): High ADX shows a strong ongoing trend — currently bearish.
- MACD: Deeply negative, confirming bearish momentum.
- CCI (-90.40): In oversold territory, suggesting a possibility of a short-term bounce.
Key Watch:
- Support at 29,150 (200-day MA) and psychological round figure of 30,000.
- Resistance at 38,819 (50-day MA), reclaiming this level may reverse bearishness.
- Watch RSI and MACD for signs of momentum reversal or further decline.
Upcoming Events:
- Crude oil price movements impacting the energy sector.
- Government policy updates on energy reforms, disinvestment plans, and sectoral caps.
- Global events affecting the energy supply chain and commodity prices.
- Earnings announcements of key energy companies in coming weeks.
Volume Analysis:
- Recent spikes in volume indicate strong participation during the fall.
- Sustained high volume on down days reflects bearish pressure.
- Look for volume contraction near support for signs of seller exhaustion or accumulation.
Dow Theory Chart Analysis & Observations:
- The index is making lower highs and lower lows in the short term, confirming a bearish trend.
- Long-term uptrend remains intact as long as it holds above the 200 and 390-day MAs.
- A breakdown below 29,150 could trigger deeper corrections, while holding here may form a base for a rebound.
Stocks to Watch:
- Reliance Industries, ONGC, NTPC, Power Grid, Adani Green, and BPCL — as heavyweights, these will dictate the index’s direction.
- Watch sector-specific leaders for relative strength or early signs of reversal.
Market Insights:
Short-Term View:
- Bearish to neutral. Caution warranted unless the index reclaims key resistances.
- Possible consolidation around 30,000–29,000 before a clear trend emerges.
Long-Term View:
- Still intact as long as above 29,150 (200-day MA) and 22,280 (390-day MA).
- Breaching these levels could shift long-term outlook to bearish.
Final Takeaway:
- The sector is at a critical support juncture.
- RSI and CCI near oversold zones suggest limited downside unless supports are breached.
- A decisive move above 38,819 will be required to regain bullish momentum.
- Traders should be cautious and wait for clear signals before entering.
Breakout Strategy (Bullish):
- Buy if the index closes and sustains above 38,819 (50-day MA).
- Watch for RSI moving above 50 and MACD crossover as confirmation.
- Short-term target: 42,000–45,000; Stop loss near 30,000.
Breakdown Strategy (Bearish):
- Sell if index breaks and sustains below 29,150 (200-day MA).
- Confirmation via RSI falling below 35 and MACD expanding negative.
- Short-term target: 26,000–25,000; Stop loss near 32,000.
Conclusion:
NIFTYENERGY is under pressure, but nearing strong long-term support. Traders should monitor price action near these levels closely. A breakdown will indicate more pain, while holding and bouncing may offer an opportunity for a rebound.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Online Stock Market Traning : Whatsapp : 9841986753
One to One Share Market Training : Whatsapp : 9841986753
RUPEEDESK SHARES
Rupeedesk Shares| Share Market Training | Intraday Training | Wealth creation
Stock Market Training for beginners,Technical Analysis on Equity,Commodity,Forex Market,Learn Indian Equity Share Market Share Market Trading Basics: Fundamentals Of Share Market Trading training, Stock Market Basics - Share Market Trading Basics,Share Market Trading Questions/Answers/Faq about Share Market derivatives,rupeedesk,learn and earn share Equity,Commodity and currency market traded in NSE,MCX,NCDEX And MCXSX- Rupeedesk.Contact: 9094047040/9841986753/ 044-24333577, www.rupeedesk.in)
