NIFTY Media Index Breakdown Market Outlook - 28.03.2025
NIFTY Media Index Breakdown Market Outlook - 28.03.2025
NIFTY Media Index Breakdown Market Outlook - 28.03.2025
NIFTY Media Index Breakdown Market Outlook - 28.03.2025
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
Key Factors Affecting & Observations:
1. Price Action & Trend:
- The index is in a clear downtrend since its peak in 2021.
- Recent price action shows continued weakness, breaking below major moving averages.
2. Moving Averages (MA):
- 50-day MA (1883.72), 150-day MA (1981.52), 200-day MA (2007.10), and 390-day MA (2090.72) are all above the current price (1475.25).
- This suggests a bearish trend with strong resistance at these levels.
3. Volume Analysis:
- 313.804M volume indicates active trading, but no major spike suggesting accumulation.
4. Indicators Breakdown:
- RSI (35.82):
- Close to oversold levels (below 30 indicates extreme weakness).
- Potential for a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains weak.
- ADX (42.68):
- Indicates a strong trend (above 25), confirming the downtrend momentum.
- MACD (-16.68, -140.00, -123.32):
- Negative values confirm bearish momentum with no bullish crossover in sight.
- CCI (-72.74):
- Nearing oversold territory, but not yet signaling a reversal.
Key Watch:
1. Support Levels:
- 1400-1450 zone – If broken, further downside possible.
2. Resistance Levels:
- 1500-1550: Short-term resistance.
- 2000: Strong long-term resistance (200-day MA).
3. Dow Theory Observations:
- Lower highs and lower lows confirm a bear market structure.
Stocks to Watch in Media Sector:
- Look for strong relative performers in the sector.
- Stocks with better fundamentals may hold support levels better than the index.
Market Insights (Short-Term & Long-Term View):
- Short-Term: Possible relief bounce due to oversold RSI, but trend remains bearish.
- Long-Term: Needs a breakout above 2000 levels for a bullish reversal.
Conclusion:
- Bearish trend continues unless price breaks above key moving averages.
- Short-term traders: Watch for bounce opportunities.
- Long-term investors: Avoid until a reversal is confirmed.
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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