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Stocks of major pharmaceutical stocks are likely to track the broad market next week with stock-specific actions seen for companies detailing their Jan-Mar earnings during the next five sessions. GlaxoSmithKline Pharma, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, and Ranbaxy Laboratories would report their earnings next week. We expects GlaxoSmithKline Pharma's revenue to grow 16% on year on a lower base. As per Centrum Broking, Ranbaxy Laboratories is likely to report a 31% on year decline in revenue on absence of 180-days exclusivity for generic Lipitor during the quarter. We expect MTM (marked to market) gains on foreign borrowings due to 1.3% appreciation of rupee during the quarter. Glenmark's strong topline growth momentum was likely to sustain, with India and the US markets being the key drivers.
Strong domestic franchise would ensure over 16% growth, outperforming market growth of around 12%. New launches, including low competition products like Malarone, OC products would aid healthy growth in US, likely to grow 25%. We forecast 4Q PAT (Jan-Mar net profit) to grow 32% on year, much stronger than 18% growth in sales on the back of 150bps margin expansion on a year-on-year basis. In Jan-Mar pharmaceutical companies would thrive on factors such as the US sales led by exclusivities, new launches, and strong growth in domestic formulation business, and continuing traction in other emerging markets.
