GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.09.2015 (Rangebound on lack of new triggers, F&O expiry)

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.09.2015
(Rangebound on lack of new triggers, F&O expiry)

Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are likely to trade rangebound next week, due to lack of fresh triggers and expiry of derivatives contracts.

While fundamentals for FMCG sector are mixed, the trend on technical charts look weak, with index-heavyweights ITC and Hindustan Unilever seen remaining under pressure. The CNX FMCG Index could fall to the 19000-level in the near-term.

Positive on Dabur India in the FMCG pack, as it is likely to break out from its consolidation and move higher. As far as fundamentals are concerned, FMCG companies may continue to benefit from soft raw material prices, but demand has not picked up much, which will limit revenue growth.

Yesterday, the government raised import duty on crude and refined edible oils by 500 basis points each. Import duty on crude edible oil is now at 12.5% and that on refined edible oil is 20%.

The move is positive for edible oil manufacturing companies such as Ruchi Soya Industries, JVL Agro Industries, Gokul Refoils and Solvent. But the hike in import duty may lead to a marginal rise in input costs for soaps and detergent manufacturers, which use palm oil as the feedstock. The Jul-Sep earnings and the festival season in Oct-Nov is likely to bring fresh triggers for the sector