GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week - 20.01.2014 - 24.01.2014

www.rupeedesk.in

Movements of stocks of major fast moving consumer goods companies next week will largely depend on their Oct-Dec earnings. While Emami Ltd will table its earnings on Monday, the focus is expected to shift towards Dabur India Ltd later in the week, as the company is scheduled to detail its earnings on Wednesday. Dabur will lead the FMCG space with 20% revenue growth and 10% domestic volume growth on translation gains in international business and the full impact of price hikes. We expect sales growth of 15.3% to INR18.8b (18.8 bln rupees), led by 10% domestic organic volume growth...We expect PAT growth of 17% to INR2.47b (2.47 bln rupees). Hindustan Unilever Ltd's stock is also expected to move in anticipation of its December quarter earnings. The company will announce its results on Jan 27. We expect HUVR (Hindustan Unilever) to post 4% volume growth and 9.5% revenue growth. Consumer demand has not improved sequentially. The firm also expects earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation and amortisation and profit after taxes to grow at a subdued 10% and 7.5% on year, respectively. We expects HUL to post 10% revenue growth and 1% rise in earnings per share, driven by low volume growth of 4% because of weak discretionary spending and margins being impacted by the rise in input costs. We are expecting a lacklustre earnings season for the FMCG sector, as there has been a significant slowdown in demand owing to high inflation and poor consumer sentiment. FMCG revenue growth shall remain tepid for the coming quarters, as high inflation has begun to impact consumer spending even in the staples and the trade becomes increasingly cautious on managing working capital.