GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 14 to 18.07.2014

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 14 to 18.07.2014
(www.rupeedesk.in)

In line with the market, bank stocks are expected to trade lower next week as investors
are likely to continue booking profits. Retail as well as headline inflation data due
Monday along with Apr-Jun earnings of a few banks will give direction to the market
next week. The June inflation data is seen as the key indicator to the Reserve Bank of
India's interest rate stance. The RBI will detail its bi-monthly monetary policy statement
on Aug 5.

According to a Cogencis poll, India's Consumer Price Index inflation is likely to soften to
a near two-and-a-half year low of 7.8% in June, and the Wholesale Price Index-based
inflation rate is likely to moderate to 5.8%.
Stocks of Kotak Mahindra Bank, Federal Bank, and South Indian Bank will be in focus
as these banks will detail their Apr-Jun results Wednesday.

There will be increased focus on State Bank of India and Punjab National Bank on
Monday following the comments of Department of Financial Services Secretary G.S.
Sandhu yesterday, that the two would be the first among public sector banks in which the
government will sell its stocks, mainly to retail investors.

He also said that the government was already working out a strategy for stake-sale in
each PSU bank. However, such stake sale would be in a staggered manner and the
government will not dilute its stake below 51%. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the
14200-15000 range next week. Bank Nifty looks weak on technical charts and funds may opt for defensive stocks.