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Oil Stocks Outlook For The Week - 09 to 13.10.2017

Oil Stocks Outlook For The Week - 09 to 13.10.2017

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Oil Stocks Outlook For The Week - 03 to 06.10.2017
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The upward momentum in stocks of public sector oil refiners and retailers-- Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp--is likely to continue next week because of robust fundamentals and positive cues on charts. The three state-owned fuel retailers continue to be on solid ground, benefiting from healthy domestic demand for fuels as well as robust core refining and
marketing margins, which lend a positive outlook for these Stocks. The three state-owned fuel retailers received some relief last week when the government decided to cut basic excise duty on petrol and diesel by 2 rupees a ltr following the spurt in international prices of crude oil and petroleum products over recent weeks. We believe that the reduction in excise duty, although to be passed on to consumers, will allay apprehensions of a hit on margins of oil marketing companies. The government has also urged states to cut value added tax on the two automobile fuels. If states comply, these companies are expected to get more room to better manage their marketing margins. We also expect the three companies to post robust earnings for the September quarter and that may also
support these stocks in the coming weeks. Futures contracts of crude oil on global and domestic exchanges are expected to trade marginally higher next week as Russia has hinted that the production cut deal may be extended. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers may extend the production cut deal till the end of 2018. Investors are, however, cautious since tropical storm Nate is expected to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend as a hurricane. Gulf of Mexico is the heart of US oil refining capacity and refineries, which are still recovering from the disruptions caused by hurricane Harvey.
Stocks of upstream players such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp and Oil India may move in line with the movement in crude oil prices next week. The fundamentals for these stocks have begun to improve as strong oil prices will lead to strong financial performance for upstream companies. Any major shift in the dollar-rupee exchange rate could also impact shares of oil companies. If the dollar weakens against the rupee, it could add to the woes of upstream companies.

Hindpetro - Up
Ongc - Up
Gail   - Up
Bpcl  - Up
Oil  - Up

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