GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 03 to 07.08.2015

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 03 to 07.08.2015
Bias positive next week; RBI policy in focus

Bank stocks are expected to trade with a positive bias next week despite much hope for a rate cut
from Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday. According to a Cogencis poll, the RBI is likely to keep the repo rate unchanged at its bi-monthly policy statement. With a 25-bps repo rate cut on Jun 2, the RBI had reduced its policy rate by a total of 75 bps in 2015. The Bank Nifty ended at 18729.85 today.

Also, the government yesterday said it will infuse 700 bln rupees in public sector banks over the next four years, including 250 bln rupees in the current financial year, giving a boost to investor
sentiment.

The government will provide 250 bln rupees each in 2015-16 and 2016-17 and 100 bln rupees each in 2017-18 and 2018-19 from budgetary resources. According to earlier RBI estimates, the capital requirement for public sector banks was over 2.40 trln rupees by 2018-19 under Basel III. Most banks look good in the short-term the next one week, but in the medium term, Punjab National Bank and Bank of Baroda should be looked at by traders. Also, there will be stock-specific action in

United Bank of India, Canara Bank and Corporation Bank, whose Apr-Jun results are due next week. On Thursday, Bank of Baroda reported a nearly 23% on-year drop in Apr-Jun net profit owing to muted net interest income growth and continued stress on asset quality. YES Bank reported a nearly 28% on-year growth in its Apr-Jun bottomline due to healthy rise in interest income and despite slight decline in asset quality.