PSU Banks at Crossroads – Rebound or Retreat? A Technical Take on Nifty PSU Bank Index - 05.04.2025
PSU Banks at Crossroads – Rebound or Retreat? A Technical Take on Nifty PSU Bank Index - 05.04.2025
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
Key Factors Affecting & Reasons:
- Recent pullback due to profit booking after a strong rally since 2023
- RBI’s monetary policy stance and bond yield movements affecting banking margins
- Government’s reform agenda and capital infusion news keep long-term sentiment positive
- Global banking cues and FIIs' activity also driving short-term moves
Key Watch:
- Resistance zone: 6700–6800
- Support zone: 6000–6100
- RSI hovering around 48; watch for a move above 50 to signal renewed strength
- MACD still in the negative zone but flattening – early signs of momentum shift
Volume Analysis:
- Volume surged during major rallies (mid-2023), now tapering off
- Recent green candles near 200-day moving average indicate institutional buying interest at lower levels
- No major distribution observed yet – suggests consolidation rather than reversal
Dow Theory Chart Analysis & Observations:
- Long-term trend is bullish since 2020 with higher highs and higher lows
- Currently in a correction phase, testing previous breakout zone
- Price respecting 150 and 200 MA supports; potential for base building
Stocks to Watch:
- SBI – Holding firm; any dip may offer opportunity
- Bank of Baroda – Forming a base; RSI nearing a breakout
- Canara Bank – Momentum slowing but structure intact
- Punjab National Bank – Riskier but high beta play
Market Insights:
Short-Term View:
- Likely rangebound between 6100–6800
- Need a close above 6800 for the next leg up
- Break below 6000 may trigger deeper correction
Long-Term View:
- As long as it holds 4500–5000 on a closing basis, structural bull run intact
- Potential upside toward 7500–8000 in the next 6–12 months, if support zones hold
Disclaimer:
This post is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Always consult with a certified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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