Nifty Realty Outlook: Real Gains or a Reality Check Ahead? - 05.04.2025
Nifty Realty Outlook: Real Gains or a Reality Check Ahead? - 05.04.2025
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
Key Factors Affecting & Reasons:
- Rising interest rates impacting home loan affordability and buyer sentiment
- Inventory overhang in key urban markets affecting new project launches
- Strong post-pandemic recovery in real estate tapering off
- Budget incentives for affordable housing providing some cushion
- Shift in demand towards premium and commercial realty segments
Key Watch:
- Resistance near 995–1000 zone – a breakout level for bullish continuation
- Crucial support around 780–800 – bulls need to defend this to avoid deeper correction
- RSI hovering near 39 – reversal signs needed above 45
- MACD is in bearish territory but flattening – signs of trend shift to watch for
Volume Analysis:
- Declining volumes suggest consolidation phase
- Accumulation evident around the 200-week moving average
- No signs of panic selling, suggesting underlying strength
Dow Theory Chart Analysis & Observations:
- Long-term uptrend intact, but currently in a corrective wave
- Price action respecting 150-week and 200-week moving averages
- Higher highs and higher lows structure still valid
- RSI and CCI near oversold zones, offering possible reversal opportunity
Stocks to Watch:
- DLF – Strong leadership in the sector; watch for a bounce from support
- Lodha (Macrotech Developers) – Eyeing a breakout above recent consolidation
- Godrej Properties – Base building underway with volume support
- Prestige Estates – Risk-reward favorable at current levels
- Oberoi Realty – Oversold and attractive for long-term investors
Market Insights:
Short-Term View (1–3 months):
Expect sideways movement between 780 and 950; cautious optimism advised. A breakout above 1000 may bring momentum back.
Long-Term View (6–12 months):
As long as support near 780–800 holds, a gradual climb toward 1100–1200 is possible on the back of economic revival and improving sales velocity in Tier-1 cities.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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