Nifty Metal Outlook – Is the Steel Getting Hot Again? - 05.04.2025
Nifty Metal Outlook – Is the Steel Getting Hot Again? - 05.04.2025
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
Key Factors Affecting & Reasons:
- Global commodity cycle revival boosting metal demand across economies
- China's stimulus measures lifting metal prices globally
- Strong infrastructure push in India driving domestic demand
- Decline in energy and freight costs easing margin pressure for metal producers
- Stabilization in global inflation supporting investor sentiment toward cyclical sectors
Key Watch:
- Resistance at 9,200 – a decisive breakout above this may trigger fresh upside
- Immediate support at 7,400–7,800 – crucial zone to sustain bullish momentum
- RSI hovering around 45 – needs to breach 50 to confirm strength
- MACD near crossover – watch for bullish confirmation
Volume Analysis:
- Volume contracting during the recent dip signals a lack of panic selling
- Accumulation visible near moving averages – institutions possibly positioning
Dow Theory Chart Analysis & Observations:
- Long-term uptrend still intact: series of higher highs and higher lows
- Price bouncing from the 200-week MA, which acted as a launchpad in past cycles
- RSI and CCI show recovery signs from oversold levels, mirroring past reversal setups
- Strong ADX trend strength indicates a potential for sustained movement
Stocks to Watch:
- Tata Steel – attempting to break consolidation range
- JSW Steel – strong fundamentals; watch for volume-supported breakout
- Hindalco – showing strength with support from LME aluminium prices
- SAIL – forming a bullish flag pattern, ripe for breakout
- NMDC – attractive risk-reward setup with bottoming signs
Market Insights:
Short-Term View (1–3 months):
Expect sideways to positive movement with potential breakout if global cues stay favorable. Key range: 7,800 to 9,500
Long-Term View (6–12 months):
If current support levels hold, potential upside toward 10,500–11,000 remains open, in line with global demand and policy tailwinds.
Disclaimer:
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a SEBI-registered advisor before making any investment decisions.
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