Nifty Energy - Power shift or temporary dip? Decoding the Nifty Energy Index move - 05.04.2025
Nifty Energy - Power shift or temporary dip? Decoding the Nifty Energy Index move - 05.04.2025
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
Key factors affecting and reasons:
- Profit booking seen after a sharp multi-quarter rally in energy stocks
- Crude oil price fluctuations impacting upstream and downstream players differently
- Government policies on renewable energy and PSU reforms influencing sentiment
- Global energy demand outlook and OPEC decisions adding to volatility
Key watch:
- Resistance zone: 38,000–38,500
- Support zone: 30,500–31,000
- RSI near 41 – crossing 50 may trigger fresh buying
- MACD narrowing negative gap – early sign of a potential bullish crossover
Volume analysis:
- High volume in the recent correction phase = institutional interest still present
- Lower red bars and rising green volume near 200-week moving average = signs of smart money accumulation
Dow theory chart analysis and observations:
- Long-term uptrend intact with higher highs and higher lows
- Price testing 150-week and 200-week moving averages, often strong reversal zones historically
- Momentum indicators like MACD and ADX showing early signs of a trend shift
Stocks to watch:
- NTPC – consistent strength; defensive PSU play
- Power Grid – consolidating near support with strong dividend potential
- ONGC – watching oil price cues, potential bounce from long-term support
- Adani Green – volatile but attractive at lower levels amid the renewable narrative
- Tata Power – building long-term base after correction
Market insights:
Short-term view (1–3 months):
Expect sideways movement between 31,000–36,000. Break above 36,000 may lead to a quick rally toward 38,500.
Long-term view (6–12 months):
If the index holds above 30,500, a bullish move toward 42,000–45,000 is possible. Watch for broader energy transition themes to drive the next wave.
Disclaimer:
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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