Indian Market Outlook For The Week - 08 To 12.10.2018
The change in RBI's monetary policy stance to 'calibrated tightening' from 'neutral' and clear statements that rates are best set to remain at current levels, and rise in the worst case, will keep
equity investors away from the market next week. The RBI's focus on inflation, and the threat from
a weakening rupee appear to signal that one could a see a sharp rise in interest rates. We anticipate the rupee falling to 75 against the dollar next week, which is seen, adding to the pressure. The nervousness in the markets is expected to remain, at least among foreigners, that India has gone behind the curve. Therefore, we will see foreign portfolio investors selling in both bonds and equities. The Nifty 50 is seen in the range of 9950-10500 next week. Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended at 10316.45, down 282.80 points or 2.7% from its previous close, while the Sensex ended at 34376.99, down 792.17 or 2.2%. It looks like that the Nifty 50 might see some sort of a technical pull-back for the short term, and then resume its downtrend if the sentiment persists to remain weak. Next week, we will keep a watch on corporate earnings for the September quarter. Zee Entertainment Enterprises and index major Hindustan Unilever and Tata Consultancy Services are scheduled to report their numbers next week. For clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, investors will focus on the monthly US payrolls report. In the coming week, investors will also monitor data on India's headline inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (Combined) for September, as well as on the Index of Industrial Production for August. Among specific stocks, stocks of oil marketing companies are seen extending their losses, as we sharply slashed their earnings estimates to factor in lower profits after these companies were asked to absorb a 1-rupeeper-ltr cut in fuel prices.
Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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The change in RBI's monetary policy stance to 'calibrated tightening' from 'neutral' and clear statements that rates are best set to remain at current levels, and rise in the worst case, will keep
equity investors away from the market next week. The RBI's focus on inflation, and the threat from
a weakening rupee appear to signal that one could a see a sharp rise in interest rates. We anticipate the rupee falling to 75 against the dollar next week, which is seen, adding to the pressure. The nervousness in the markets is expected to remain, at least among foreigners, that India has gone behind the curve. Therefore, we will see foreign portfolio investors selling in both bonds and equities. The Nifty 50 is seen in the range of 9950-10500 next week. Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended at 10316.45, down 282.80 points or 2.7% from its previous close, while the Sensex ended at 34376.99, down 792.17 or 2.2%. It looks like that the Nifty 50 might see some sort of a technical pull-back for the short term, and then resume its downtrend if the sentiment persists to remain weak. Next week, we will keep a watch on corporate earnings for the September quarter. Zee Entertainment Enterprises and index major Hindustan Unilever and Tata Consultancy Services are scheduled to report their numbers next week. For clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, investors will focus on the monthly US payrolls report. In the coming week, investors will also monitor data on India's headline inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (Combined) for September, as well as on the Index of Industrial Production for August. Among specific stocks, stocks of oil marketing companies are seen extending their losses, as we sharply slashed their earnings estimates to factor in lower profits after these companies were asked to absorb a 1-rupeeper-ltr cut in fuel prices.
Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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