Auto Sector Analysis – K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training -14.03.2025
Auto Sector Analysis – K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training -14.03.2025
Auto Sector Analysis – K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training -14.03.2025
Auto Sector Analysis - 14.03.2025
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant Key Factors Affecting the Nifty Auto Index
1. Interest Rates & Liquidity – Higher interest rates may impact auto loans, affecting demand.
2. EV Adoption & Government Policies – Policies around electric vehicles (EVs) and subsidies for green mobility are crucial drivers.
3. Commodity Prices – Steel, rubber, and crude oil prices significantly influence auto manufacturing costs.
4. Earnings & Sales Growth – Recent auto sales data and quarterly earnings reports will dictate the trend.
5. Global Cues – Economic conditions in the U.S., China, and Europe affect global auto supply chains.
Key Watch
- Support & Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Support – 17,733 (150-day moving average)
- Major Support – 15,995 (200-day moving average)
- Resistance Levels – 22,500 – 23,922
- Technical Indicators:
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): 36.58 (Approaching oversold zone)
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Bearish momentum
Upcoming Events
- Auto Sales Data – Monthly figures will impact sentiment.
- RBI Policy Meeting – Interest rate decisions could affect financing costs.
- EV Policy Announcements – Any subsidy updates or regulations.
Volume Analysis
- Recent Sell-Off – A spike in volume suggests institutional selling.
- Support at 150-Day MA – Needs confirmation with increased buying volume.
Dow Theory Chart Analysis & Observations
- Primary Trend – Bullish (Higher highs & higher lows)
- Short-Term Trend – Corrective (Pullback towards support levels)
- Long-Term Trend – Intact as long as 15,995 holds
Stocks to Watch
- Tata Motors – Leader in EV adoption, strong earnings.
- Maruti Suzuki – Demand rebound in entry-level car segment.
- M&M – Growth in SUVs and electric mobility.
- Bajaj Auto – Two-wheeler exports recovering.
Market Insights
- Short-Term View – Bearish to neutral, testing key supports.
- Long-Term View – Bullish, buying opportunities near major support.
Final Takeaway
- Watch for a rebound from the 17,733 zone.
- Break below 15,995 could signal deeper correction.
- Monitor auto sales data and policy announcements.
Breakout Strategy (Bullish)
- Buy above 22,500 with a target of 23,922+.
- Look for increasing volume and positive RSI divergence.
Breakdown Strategy (Bearish)
- Sell if it breaks below 17,733, targeting 15,995.
- MACD & RSI confirmation needed.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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