FMCG Sector Analysis – K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training- 01.03.2025
FMCG Sector Analysis – K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training- 01.03.2025
FMCG Sector Analysis – K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training- 01.03.2025
NIFTY FMCG Sector Analysis
By K Karthik Raja
Key Factors Affecting the Market & Reasons
1. Broad market weakness – FMCG stocks are experiencing a downturn amid overall market volatility.
2. Rising input costs – Higher raw material prices are pressuring margins in FMCG companies.
3. Earnings impact – Q4 earnings results could shape the near-term direction.
4. Consumer demand trends – Rural demand recovery remains sluggish, affecting sales growth.
5. Interest rate outlook – Any shift in RBI’s stance on interest rates may influence FMCG valuations.
Key Watch
- 50-Week MA at 57,909: A key resistance level in case of a recovery.
- Support at 200-Week MA (47,564): If the correction continues, this level may act as a cushion.
- RSI at 31.92: Indicates the index is approaching oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce.
- ADX at 20.84: Signals weak trend strength, implying a possible range-bound movement ahead.
Volume Analysis
- 223.87M volume: Higher than average, suggesting strong participation in the current move.
- Bearish volume spikes: Selling pressure remains dominant, hinting at further downside risk.
Dow Theory Chart Analysis & Observations
- The long-term uptrend remains intact, but the recent breakdown signals caution.
- A lower high-lower low formation suggests short-term bearishness.
- Key demand zones around 47,500-48,000 need to be watched closely for a potential reversal.
Stocks to Watch
- HUL, ITC, Dabur, Nestlé, Britannia – These large-cap FMCG players could see significant movement.
- Colgate & Marico – Look for defensive plays in case of further market weakness.
Market Insights: Short-Term & Long-Term View
Short-Term View (1-3 months)
- The index is likely to remain volatile, with a support range of 47,500-48,000.
- Oversold RSI hints at a possible relief rally, but confirmation is needed.
Long-Term View (6-12 months)
- The bullish structure is intact unless the index breaks below 47,500.
- Long-term investors can consider accumulating quality FMCG stocks on dips.
- Growth in rural demand and discretionary consumption will be key triggers.
Disclaimer : This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
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