GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week - 17.03.2014 - 21.03.2014

www.rupeedesk.in

Stocks of the state-owned oil marketing companies are seen within a range next week and 
will broadly track broad markets while any movement in specific stocks will entirely be 
driven by news. The Indian currency has over the last few days stabilised around the 61-
for-a-dollar mark. It has brought in stability in terms of the revenue loss the companies 
incur on selling subsidised fuel. Crude oil prices have come down and are hovering 
around $105 a barrel. The developments have been the key reasons for improvement in 
sentiments in favour of the three oil marketing companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat 
Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd--over the last two 
weeks. Meanwhile, the government is likely to disburse the first of the three tranches of 
subsidy payout on Mar 18 to these companies, which may have a sentimental impact on 
the stocks. 

Last week, the President gave his assent for the second supplementary demand for grants 
that had sought 100 bln rupees as oil subsidy for state-owned oil marketing companies for 
Oct-Dec. The subsidy disbursal to state-owned oil marketing companies will happen in 
three tranches of 30 bln rupees, 30 bln rupees and 40 bln rupees. The remaining two 
tranches will be paid on Mar 21 and Mar 25. The subsidy payout improves the liquidity 
for these companies and brings down borrowings as well as finance costs. Meanwhile, 
Reliance Industries Ltd's stocks are seen trading with an upward bias next week, mostly 
on account of lower valuations; but concerns over its dwindling gas output may act as 
dampeners. Note of RIL's upstream partner BP's announcement that the recent 
discoveries in KG-D6 block are potentially commercial.