GOLDEN RULES FOR TRADING

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 29.Aug.2016 to 2.Sep.2016 (Seen subdued next week; Fed Yellen speech eyed)

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 29.Aug.2016 to 2.Sep.2016
(Seen subdued next week; Fed Yellen speech eyed)
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US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech later today and data on India's gross
domestic product for Apr-Jun, due to be released on Wednesday, would be the major
triggers for domestic equities next week. It is likely that equities will trade weak if both
events fail to provide a direction.

The market is awaiting comments from Yellen for a likely course of action at its Sep 21
meeting. If there is an indication of a rate hike by the central bank, foreign institutional
investors may sell on Monday. However, equities may gain if investors see Yellen's
speech as dovish.

Next week, the Nifty 50 is seen finding support at 8500 points, a technically adding that
it faces resistance at around 8690 points. Yesterday, the 51-stock index ended 0.2%
lower at 8572.55 points, while the S&P BSE Sensex closed at 27782.25, down 0.2%.
Market participants will also track the earnings of companies such as Bharat Petroleum
Corp, Indian Oil Corp, and DLF for the quarter ended June. BPCL is expected to report
a net profit of 21.49 bln rupees for Apr-Jun on Thursday.
www.rupeedesk.in )

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016 (PSU refiners seen mixed; IOC, BPCL earnings eyed)

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016
(PSU refiners seen mixed; IOC, BPCL earnings eyed)
www.rupeedesk.in )


It's likely to be mixed bag for stocks of state-owned oil refining companies--Indian Oil
Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd-- as they are
seen trading in a range next week.

In case of Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum, expectations of strong Apr-Jun earnings
may lend some positivity to their scrip. Earnings are expected to be driven by inventory
gains and strong gross refining margin. Indian Oil is slated to announce its Apr-Jun
earnings on Monday, while Bharat Petroleum will do so on Thursday.

Even as the bias on these two stock is neutral and they are likely to consolidate next
week, there are definite signs of correction in the Hindustan Petroleum scrip, which is
likely to trade in a range with a negative bias. In the absence of any other major trigger,
the trend for oil companies over the next few sessions will be determined by the
movement in crude oil prices as well as sentiment in the broad market.

Prices of crude oil may slip next week as cracks have appeared among members of the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ahead of a meeting next month.
Earlier, Russia and Iran had sent signals that they may support joint action to lift oil
prices, when OPEC and some non-OPEC members meet at the International Energy
Forum on Sep 26-28.

However, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, seems to have thrown a spanner
in the works. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said on Thursday that he
does not "believe any significant intervention in the market is necessary other than to
allow the forces of supply and demand to do the work for us."
High level of the US crude oil inventory is also weighing on oil prices and may
continue to do so next week. According to data released on Wednesday, US crude oil
inventories rose by 2.5 mln bbl in the week ended Aug 19 and distillate stocks went up
by 100,000 bbl.

The three companies will revise fuel prices on Wednesday, and while it is a routine
exercise, it may have some sentimental impact on their scrip. For upstream companies
like Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd, Oil India Ltd, and Cairn India Ltd, weakness in
crude oil prices will have a negative impact, while it could lend some positivity to
stocks of refining companies. On charts, however, shares of upstream companies are
seen trading with a positive bias,.

Fluctuation in dollar-rupee exchange rate is also likely to affect shares of oil companies.
If the dollar strengthens against the rupee, it will hit refining companies and benefit
upstream players. A weak dollar, on other hand, is advantageous for downstream
companies.

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016 (Stocks to rebound, seen positive next week)

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016
(Stocks to rebound, seen positive next week)
www.rupeedesk.in )

Stocks of major metal and mining companies are seen rebounding next week after the
consolidation in the last few successive trading days. Overall, the Nifty Metal index is
seen positive, adding that its important support is seen at 2430 level. The index is seen
scaling up to 3200 points in the long run if it crosses the 2650 level. No weakness is
seen in the short run.

At a fundamental level, there has been no sharp movement in stocks mainly due to lack
of sector as well as company specific news. Among stocks, Tata Steel may
underperform among its peers as it has the maximum weightage in the Nifty Metal
Index.

I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016 (Subdued next week; to negative bias)

I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016
(Subdued next week; to negative bias)


Stocks of information technology companies are expected to continue their downward
trend next week as negative bias over the sector is largely expected to continue. The
only solace would be possibility of depreciation in Indian currency next week that may
cap the fall in stock of Indian software exporters.

Weakness in the broader market is also seen weighing on the IT stocks after Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen who at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
signalled likely hood of an interest rate hike soon. Yellen said the case for another
interest rate hike is strengthening, sending a strong signal the US central bank is
preparing to increase rates at of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to be held
on Sep 20-21.

Infosys Ltd said that it expects uncertainties created by 'Brexit' to continue and the loss
of a contract from the Royal Bank of Scotland may not be a one-off case. The company
said clarity on the extent of impact of Brexit on it will emerge in October but did not
clarify whether it will review or retain its sales growth guidance for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar).
This further dampened the view on its stock and on the sector.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016 (Seen to trade in range, bias negative)

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016
(Seen to trade in range, bias negative)


Stocks of capital goods companies are expected to trade in a range with a negative bias
next week in the absence of major triggers and a weak outlook for the sector in the nearterm.
Sector bellwether Larsen & Toubro may see some upside in the coming week,
following Group Executive Chairman A. M. Naik's comments that the company has set
a sales target of 2 trln rupees by 2021 without compromising on margins. Stocks of
Crompton Greaves are likely to trade sideways with the business not picking up much

in the recent times.

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016 (Seen range bound with overall positive bias)

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016
(Seen range bound with overall positive bias)

Stocks of major mobile companies are seen trading in a range next week with an overall
positive bias for the near term, aided by expectations of a healthy post-monsoon
demand and Payout of arrears based on the recommendations of the Seventh Pay
Commission is also seen lifting demand.

The CNX Index, which closed 0.7% higher at 9538.40 points yesterday, may remain
range bound in the next few sessions, finding resistance at 9800.00 levels and Support
for the index is seen at 9350.00 levels.

Last month, the government had approved recommendations of the Seventh Central
Pay Commission with retrospective effect from Jan 1, 2016. According to a report by
India Ratings and Research, the government will have to fork out in excess of 340 bln
rupees on account of arrears for January to July and salary payments for August.

Stocks of Maruti Suzuki are seen consolidating next week, backed by strong
fundamentals and a good order book for its Baleno hatchback and Vitara Brezza sports
utility vehicles. Besides, stocks of most two-wheeler makers are seen consolidating
with a upward bias, mainly due to expectations of an increase in the rural demand and a
turnaround in sales.

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016 (May consolidate next wk, with Apr-Jun GDP eyed)

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 29.08.2016 to 02.09.2016
(May consolidate next wk, with Apr-Jun GDP eyed)
www.rupeedesk.in )

Banking stocks are expected to consolidate with a positive bias next week. The Nifty
Bank index is expected to be in the range of 19050-19400 points. The Nifty Bank ended
1.1% lower for the week at 19195.75 points on Friday.
A major trigger for stocks was expected to be US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's
speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium late Friday. While Yellen did
say that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate had "strengthened in recent
months", she did not give indications on its timing, only reiterating that the central bank
continued to be data dependent.

Domestically, GDP data for Apr-Jun, slated to be released post market hours on
Wednesday, should also lend cues for the second half of next week. In Jan-Mar, India's
GDP grew at a one-and-a-half year high of 7.9%, taking the growth rate for 2015-16
(Apr-Mar) to 7.6%. However, in mid-July, the International Monetary Fund cut its
forecast for India's GDP growth in 2016-17 by 10 basis points to 7.4%.

With the market consolidating near higher band of 8700, underperforming sectors have
also started to witness risk-reward based plays. The PSU banking space is one such,
which has been broadly moving up on short-covering theme. Canara Bank has also
moved up on short covering and multi-year high volume price of Rs. 245 is the key
support level for current upsides.

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 Positive; RBI policy, earnings key next week

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 8.Aug.2016 to 12.Aug.2016
(Positive; RBI policy, earnings key next week)
www.rupeedesk.in )

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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 To take cues from Jul sales data, companies' earnings

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 Positive; RBI policy, earnings key next week



With the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy scheduled for Tuesday and a bunch of Nifty 50
companies detailing their Apr-Jun earnings next week, action in equities will be largely stock-centric.
The underlying bias remains positive as indices are likely to test new highs, but gains will be followed by bouts of profit booking. Views on the monetary policy action of RBI are mixed. Some see scope for a 25 basis point cut in repo rate in view of the good progress in monsoon rains and passage of the crucial Constitution Amendment Bill for goods and services tax by the Rajya Sabha.

Cumulative rainfall in the country during Jun 1-Aug 4 was 499.1 mm, 2% above normal, and barring
east and northeast India, all the other subdivisions received above normal rainfall. Besides, the government has set the inflation target for the next five years at 4% in a band of 2-6%. The fiveyear
target is unchanged from the oneset for March 2018. This is also one of the reasons why some see room for a rate cut next week. A few others, though, expect a 25 basis points cut in repo rate only in the coming months.

The passage of GST bill has certainly paved way for a rate cut, but not necessarily in the short-term.
Given the accommodative monetary policy stance of other central banks, and expectations that
softening of commodity prices will keep food inflation moderate, a 25 basis points rate cut is likely by October. If RBI surprises the market with a 50-basis-point repo rate cut, it will result in a sharp jump in share prices, with the possibility of Nifty 50 testing 9000 points. Now, if RBI cuts interest rates, it will lead to a sharp rally, while a status quo may lead to a short-term correction.

Yesterday, the index ended at 8683.15, up 132.05 points or 1.5% from the previous close, while
Sensex closed at 28078.35, 363.98 points or 1.3%. Nifty 50 companies detailing their Apr-Jun
earnings next week include Hindalco Industries, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Hero
MotoCorp, Cipla, Lupin, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries,
Bank of Baroda, Bosch, Grasim Industries, and Idea Cellular. Next week, stocks of information
technology companies may extend losses as investors move out of 'defensive' companies, and as
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp has cut its sales guidance for 2016.

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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 To take cues from Jul sales data, companies' earnings

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016
To take cues from Jul sales data, companies' earnings

Stocks of major automobile companies are seen taking cues from earnings for the Apr-Jun quarter,
scheduled to be announced next week. The bias for auto stocks remains positive in view of healthy
sales numbers and expectations of a turnaround in demand driven by a good monsoon so far this
season. The CNX Auto Index, which closed at 9738.65 points yesterday, up nearly 3% on a weekly
basis, may test 9900 points soon. Next week, Hero MotoCorp and Mahindra and Mahindra will be in
focus following their earnings announcements. While Hero MotoCorp would detail its earnings on
Monday, Mahindra and Mahindra would announce earnings on Wednesday.

Hero MotoCorp, which closed the week up 7%, may go past 3,500 rupees, driven by bullish earnings.
The company's Apr-Jun net profit is seen rising 12.6% on year to 8.4 bln rupees due to a likely rise in
sales of two-wheeler maker and soft commodity prices. Aided by Hero MotoCorp, the market is seen
likely to be bullish on stocks of other two-wheeler makers, considering an expected turnaround in
rural demand. The Mumbai-based automaker's bottom line is at 8.8 bln rupees for Apr-Jun,
marginally higher than 8.5 bln rupees in the same quarter a year ago.

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 Range bound next week; Idea Apr-Jun results eyed

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016
Range bound next week; Idea Apr-Jun results eyed

Stocks of telecommunication companies are seen moving in a range next week. Focus will be on Idea
Cellular Ltd, which will announce its Apr-Jun earnings on Monday. The country's third largest operator by customer base is expected to report a consolidated net profit of 4.49 bln rupees, down 22% on quarter. Consolidated net sales are seen rising 2.8% on quarter to 97.33 bln rupees. Idea Cellular's quarterly number are seen under pressure due to a slowdown in volume growth, fall in margins, and huge investment incurred in rolling out 4G services across the country.

The stock is seen weak on charts. Movement will be guided by its Apr-Jun numbers. Bharti Airtel Ltd, which corrected over the past week after delivering handsome June quarter numbers, is expected to move in a narrow range. Earlier yesterday, the Sunil Mittal-promoted company launched two new
post-paid plans that have data bundled with unlimited calling. This comes in the wake of a pricing
war over data and voice as existing telecom players gear up for the entry of Reliance Jio Infocomm,
the telecom arm of Reliance Industries Ltd. Telecom majors including Idea Cellular and Vodafone
India Pvt Ltd have announced price cuts, or have launched creatively bundled packs with higher data
and voice quantum.

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 Seen weak as Cognizant cuts 2016 sales guidance

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016
Seen weak as Cognizant cuts 2016 sales guidance

Stocks of information technology companies are seen trading in a range with a negative bias next week, as Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp's weak sales growth guidance for 2016 is seen
weighing on the sector. The US-based IT major cut its sales growth guidance for 2016 to $13.47 bln-
$13.60 bln from $13.65 bln-$14.00 bln earlier. Back home, earlier this week, HCL Technologies
surprised the market with strong Apr-Jun earnings. The Delhi-based company reported a consolidated net profit of 20.5 bln rupees for Apr-Jun, up 5.9% on quarter. Revenue from operations were at 113.4 bln rupees, up 5.9%.

Tech Mahindra, which detailed its earnings on Monday, reported a consolidated net profit of 7.96 bln
rupees, down 9.5% on quarter and income from operations of 69.2 bln rupees, up 0.5%. Analysts,
however, believe investors may are likely to invest in the stock due to low valuations. Analysts
recommend investing in stocks of midcap companies, which are likely to be less risky than frontline
companies. The Indian currency is likely to trade weak against the US dollar, which rose following
robust US July payroll data. The Indian unit ended at 66.77 rupees to a dollar yesterday.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 Largely positive; but some profit taking seen

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016
Largely positive; but some profit taking seen

Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are seen trading sideways with a positive bias as
the sentiment in the sector continues to remain upbeat due to good monsoon and the expected
implementation of Goods and Service Tax from Apr 1. Analysts say that despite consumer stocks
trading at extremely high valuations, fundamentals for the sector remain positive and could lead to
earnings estimate upgrades. Colgate Palmolive India Ltd and Britannia Industries Ltd will detail Apr-
Jun earnings on Monday and the market will closely look out for management's comment on volume
growth and margins. Stocks of Hindustan Unilever Ltd are seen trading positive. Marico Ltd is
expected to trade with a positive bias and can touch test a new high. Colgate India is also expected
to trade positive.

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 PSU refiners seen trading with positive bias

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016
PSU refiners seen trading with positive bias

Stocks of state-owned oil refining companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd--are likely to trade with a positive bias next week. The stocks are seen
positive given the weakness in crude oil prices and rising gross refining margins. Oil producers Oil
and Natural Gas Corp and Oil India shares could remain weak due to the fall in crude oil prices.

Crude oil futures on the NYMEX have fallen more than 3% from Jul 25 to trade at $41 per bbl levels. Given the lack of sector-specific triggers, the stocks will take cues from oil prices and broad market
sentiment, which will wait on the contours of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy scheduled
for Tuesday. Crude oil prices are likely to see some recovery over the next four to five sessions after
having slipped below the crucial $40-a-bbl level earlier this week. Stocks of the three oil marketing
companies are seen positive.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 In a range with negative bias next week

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016
In a range with negative bias next week

Stocks of capital goods companies are expected to trade within a range with a negative bias next
week owing to weak Apr-Jun earnings and bleak outlook on sector majors. Sector bellwether Larsen
& Toubro could see a near-11% fall from current levels in the next few weeks. Stocks of Cummins
India and Siemens may not see an upside in the forthcoming week, owing to lower than expected net
profit for the quarter ended June. Cummins India reported a 14.3% on-year fall in net profit at 1.8
bln rupees and a 4% on-year fall in net sales at 12.3 bln rupees in Apr-Jun. Siemens' net profit
declined 22.7% on year to 1.30 bln rupees in the June quarter, while net sales were up 10.4% yearon-
year at 25.63 bln rupees. Analysts had estimated the engineering company's net profit at 1.68 bln
rupees, same as that a year ago.

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 Seen up on positive momentum in broader market

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016
Seen up on positive momentum in broader market

Stocks of cement manufacturing companies are seen trading with a positive bias next week due to
likely positive momentum in the broader market even as investors wait for the Reserve Bank of
India's monetary policy review on Tuesday. The broader market is seen trading higher next week led
by gains in Asian markets, following Bank of England's first rate cut in seven years. Cement stocks
will look for cues from the broad market due to paucity of sector or company-specific triggers next
week. Rains have curbed demand for cement across most of the country. The Jul-Sep quarter has
been a the traditionally weak quarter. Cement prices have declined by 5-30 rupees per 50-kg bag in
large parts of north India and dealers expect them to fall further. Analysts will await the Apr-Jun
earnings of JK Cement scheduled to be announced on Saturday.

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016 RBI policy eyed; bank specific action seen next week

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 08 to 12.08.2016
RBI policy eyed; bank specific action seen next week
www.rupeedesk.in )

Bank stocks are likely to take cues next week from the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy but
action is largely seen stock-specific because of the last leg of Apr-Jun earnings. The central bank will
detail its third bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar) on Tuesday. While the
RBI is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%, investors will eye outgoing
Governor Raghuram Rajan's commentary on the progress made by banks on reducing stressed loans.
The RBI has kept March 2017 as the deadline for banks to clean up their balance sheets. Following
the Reserve Bank of India's asset quality review, 11 public sector banks reported a cumulative loss of
around 130 bln rupees for Oct-Dec. For Jan-Mar, the number of these banks rose to 14, with the loss
nearly doubling to around 255 bln rupees. So far, the sector heavyweights like Axis Bank and ICICI
Bank that have reported a rise in bad loans have guided for a cautious outlook on the asset quality.

In the last leg of Apr-Jun earnings, State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, along with their mid-sized
peers like Dena Bank, Corporation Bank, and UCO Bank, among others will announce their results
next week.

With PSU banks' participation and continuous outperformance from the private players, Nifty Bank
seems set to test much higher levels in near-term. For this week, Nifty Bank ended at 18925.95, up
nearly 3% on week. We believe that Federal Bank, SBI, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank have
potential to move further northward and can be considered for fresh buying.

Indian Market Outlook for the week - 01 to 05.08.2016 (Monsoon Session, earnings key triggers next week)

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 1.Aug.2016 to 5.Aug.2016
(Monsoon Session, earnings key triggers next week)
www.rupeedesk.in )

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www.rupeedesk.in )
Next week, investors will closely monitor proceedings at the monsoon session of Parliament, during
which the Constitution amendment Bill for the goods and services tax will be taken up by the Rajya
Sabha. Sources in the Congress today said that the party has reached a broad agreement with the
government on the GST Bill, which is likely to keep investors' sentiment buoyant.

However, with both the Nifty 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex trading near their multi-month highs, there
may be a possibility of profit booking even if the Bill is passed by the Upper House, as it seems to
have been factored.

The Nifty 50 is expected to find immediate support at 8500 points next week if traders sell equities in
case the Bill isn't passed by the Rajya Sabha. We believe that the index faces immediate resistance at
8700 points, after ending the day at 8638.50, down 0.3%. The S&P BSE Sensex today fell 0.6% to
28051.86 points.

The June quarter earnings of key companies next week will also be in focus, though the run-up of
indices to multi-month highs has made some market participants nervous. Next week, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies and Tata Power Co are the Nifty 50 constituents that will report their June quarter earnings. Apart from the three, InterGlobe Aviation, VRL Logistics, Cadila Healthcare, Fortis Healthcare, Pfizer, and Tata Chemicals will also report their quarterly numbers next week.

ICICI Bank will also be in focus, after reporting a net profit of 22.3 bln rupees. The bank's asset
quality was largely stable, with gross non-performing assets at 5.87% of total loans as of June-end,
against 5.82% a quarter earlier. The automobile sector would also be in focus on Monday and
Tuesday, as companies in the sector report their sales numbers for July.

www.rupeedesk.in )

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 01 to 05.08.2016 (Seen up on hope of Rajya Sabha passing GST bill)

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 01 to 05.08.2016
(Seen up on hope of Rajya Sabha passing GST bill)

The shares of fast moving consumer goods companies are seen trading on a positive note on the back
of higher expectations Rajya Sabha passing the Good and Services Tax Bill. The Cabinet has already
approved changes to the Constitutional Amendment Bill to roll out Goods and Services Tax,
accommodating the Congress' demand to drop the 1% additional levy on inter-state sales. The GST bill is likely to be tabled in the Rajya Sabha next week. Nifty FMCG today closed at 22228.85, down 0.3% from the previous close. Marico Ltd is seen rising to 290 rupees in short term while Dabur India Ltd is seen rising to 325 rupees.

Godrej Consumer is currently trading near its key support level and is expected to trade higher next
week. The stock fell 2.7% from the previous close to 1,590.80 rupees on the National Stock Exchange after the company announced its Apr-Jun results during market hours. The company said
that lower sales in the home insecticides segment had hurt the topline. Godrej Consumer's
consolidated net sales rose 6.8% on year to 21.2 bln rupees.

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 01 to 05.08.2016 (PSU refiners seen positive, oil prices eyed)

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 01 to 05.08.2016
(PSU refiners seen positive, oil prices eyed)

The shares of state-owned oil refining companies Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd,
and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd are likely to trade with a positive bias next week, given the fresh
weakness in crude oil prices and likelihood of strong Apr-Jun earnings for these companies. Earnings
are expected to be better on hopes of high inventory gains. The positive mood is attributable to a muted outlook for crude prices. This implies healthy B/S (balance sheet), and product demand at lower end-prices, resulting in sustained and higher marketing segment profits.

We expect stock prices to peak with 1Q results; a correction will follow on weak GRM (gross refining margins), allowing a fresh entry point. In the absence of any major sectoral trigger, the trend for downstream as well as upstream oil companies over the next few sessions will be determined by the movement in crude oil prices as well as sentiment in the broad market.

Crude oil futures on domestic as well as global exchanges are likely to extend losses into the third
straight week with increasing worries over excess supply of crude oil and refined products. Crude oil
prices fell to an over 14-week low today, to 2,737 rupees per barrel on the Multi Commodity
Exchange of India, and were at $40.69 a bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The US Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil inventories rose by an
unexpected 1.7 mln bbl in the week ended Friday. The market had projected a 1.6-mln-bbl decline.
Petrol stocks rose by 500,000 bbl despite this being the key summer driving season in the US. For upstream players such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd, Oil India Ltd, and Cairn India Ltd, a rise
in crude oil prices will have a negative impact as these entities produce and sell the commodity. On the other hand, a gradual decline in crude prices is a positive for refiners, as it is the primary input for
them, but downstream companies take a hit if the decline in oil prices is sharp, as it leads to inventory
losses for them.

The oil marketing companies are scheduled to revise fuel prices on Sunday. Although it is a routine
exercise, the price revision may have some sentimental impact on Monday. The shares of the three oil
marketing companies are already in the overbought zone but there are no signs of weakness yet and
the rally might continue in the immediate-to-near term.

Among the three stocks, Indian Oil is the top pick and could appreciate by another 10% over the next
7-10 sessions, and may also see a breakout early next week at around 500-rupee levels. Fluctuation in
the dollar-rupee exchange rates is also likely to affect shares of downstream and upstream oil
companies. If the dollar strengthens against the rupee, it will hit refining companies and benefit
upstream players. A weak dollar, on other hand, will help downstream companies, as India primarily
relies on imported crude oil to meet its requirements.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the seek – 01 to 05.08.2016 (Seen in range; Apr-Jun earnings eyed)

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the seek – 01 to 05.08.2016
(Seen in range; Apr-Jun earnings eyed)

Next week, shares of capital goods companies are likely to trade within a range and on a cautious note, as Siemens and Cummins India detail their earnings for Apr-Jun. The Stock-specific action is
expected, owing to no notable near-term triggers apart from the earnings announcements of companies.

Sector bellwether Larsen & Toubro yesterday reported a 45.5% on-year rise in consolidated net profit
for Apr-Jun at 6.10 bln rupees, while its consolidated total income increased 9.1% on year to 218.74
bln rupees. However, both the bottomline and topline were below the estimated 7.94 bln rupees and
224.48 bln rupees, respectively.

The stock could hit 1,580 rupees next week, as L&T has maintained its sales growth forecast at 12-
15%, and order inflow growth forecast at 15% for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar). Market participants will track
Siemens and Cummins India, as both will announce their earnings for the June quarter on Aug 4.
Cummins India is expected to perform well over the medium-to-long term, as business fundamentals
remain strong. The stock could rise to 890 rupees in the coming week, it added. Siemens is likely to
report a net profit of 1.7 bln rupees for Apr-Jun, almost flat on year, and a 9.1% on-year rise in net
sales at 25.32 bln rupees

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 01 to 05.08.2016 (Positive trend eyeing broad market, GST bill)

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 01 to 05.08.2016
(Positive trend eyeing broad market, GST bill)

Bank stocks may trade with a positive bias next week tracking cues from the broad market which is
focussed on possible passage of the much delayed Goods and Services Tax in Parliament. The trend is positive, and unless there is any adverse development on the GST front, the broad market and bank stocks will move higher. The passage of GST will be seen as the government finally getting into consensus mode with opposition for passage of key legislation.

The government has listed the Constitution amendment bill to facilitate the rollout of the Goods and
Services Tax for consideration and passage in the Rajya Sabha in the coming week. Additionally,
quoting a Congress source. Passage of the long delayed GST bill will push broad equity markets,
including bank stocks, higher.

Indian Bank is the only key lender which will report Apr-Jun earnings in the coming week on
Tuesday. We feel the outperformance in banking stocks is likely to continue unless any negative
trigger comes from quarterly numbers, which will help the price ratio to inch higher.

Waves Strategy Advisors in its technical note point out that unlike other state-owned bank stocks such as Punjab National Bank and Bank of India which have consolidated after rising sharply, State Bank of India is moving in a 222-235 rupee band with a potential for breakout in either direction.

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week -01 to 05.08.2016 (To take cues from July sales data, companies earnings)

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week -01 to 05.08.2016
(To take cues from July sales data, companies earnings)

Next week, automobile stocks are expected to take cues from sales data for July, expected to be
announced on Monday. The bias for most auto stocks remains positive on account of the steady
progress of the monsoon, as well as hope of a revival in demand in rural regions.

The CNX Auto Index, which closed up nearly 2% this week, is likely to cross the 9500-point mark and may well test 9650 points, given the encouraging earnings announced by Maruti Suzuki and Eicher Motors. Maruti Suzuki is expected to record further gains, even as the company ramps up production to make up for the shortfall in June, which resulted from a maintenance-related plant shutdown. The company's shares, which gained as much as 8% this week, will see brisk trading, given that most brokerage houses have raised the target price on the stock.

Shares of the country's largest passenger carmaker by volumes may test 5,000 rupees in the coming
weeks, if it manages to break past the crucial resistance point of 4,850 rupees. Maruti Suzuki is
improving its competitive positioning and has long-term strengths. Maruti Suzuki's strong product
portfolio and distribution network makes it best placed to capture pent-up demand in the passenger
vehicles segment. We ascribe a 'buy' recommendation on the stock, with a target price of 5,095 rupees.

Besides, the market will also be bullish on stocks of two-wheeler makers, considering an expected
turnaround in rural demand. Hero MotoCorp, which fell 1.8% this week, may see an upswing,
assuming the company's sales numbers for July are in line with expectations. Mahindra & Mahindra
has been trading within a range of 1,400-1,490 rupees, and will see resistance at the higher end of this
band.

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 01 to 05.08.2016 (May fall on profit booking next week)

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 01 to 05.08.2016
(May fall on profit booking next week)

The Stocks of major metal and mining companies are seen correcting downward next week as they
have been overbought in the last few sessions. The chances of profit booking is high correction to the
extent of 2250-2300 points is seen (in case of Nifty Metal index) and the immediate resistance of the
index at 2500 points.

Investors would be eyeing any decision on extension of minimum import price of steel products,
which is set to expire on Aug 5. The government had on Feb 5 imposed minimum import price on 173 steel item lines for six months, to protect the companies from cheap imports coming into the country from China, South Korea, and Japan. The decision is crucial for domestic steelmakers as they were facing predatory pricing from global exporters.

Steel Minister Chaudhary Birender Singh on Thursday asked the industry to prepare a "roadmap" to
become competitive in the international market even if the minimum import price on steel products is
extended after its expiry in August.

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 25.Jul.2016 to 29.Jul.2016 (Stock indices are set to continue their underlying positive bias next week)

Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 25.Jul.2016 to 29.Jul.2016
(Stock indices are set to continue their underlying positive bias next week)
www.rupeedesk.in )

========================================================================

Stock indices are set to continue their underlying positive bias next week, in the backdrop of quarterly corporate earnings and expiry of the July futures and options derivatives contracts.
Nifty 50 companies announcing their earnings for Apr-Jun next week include ACC, Ambuja Cements, Asian Paints, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel, Bharti Infratel, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Eicher Motors, Housing Development Finance Corp, ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki India, YES Bank, and Zee Entertainment Enterprises.

While ICICI Bank's earnings will be tracked for its asset quality and credit growth, L&T's order inflow growth, guidance and operating margins will also be under investors' radar.

The week in the run-up to the expiry of the July futures and options series will keep the movement
volatile, as traders roll over positions from the current derivatives series to the August series. During
the week, the Nifty 50 is seen moving within a range of 8420-8620 points. Today, it ended at 8451.20, up 31.10 points or 0.4% from the previous close. The Sensex closed at 27803.24, up 92.72 points or 0.3% from the previous close.

So far this month, the index has risen 3%, as disappointment on the earnings of information
technology majors has been offset by strength in global markets. Globally, equities have been buoyant on hope that major central banks will maintain accommodative monetary policies in the wake of the UK's decision to exit the European Union. The US Federal Open Market Committee and Bank of Japan are scheduled to meet next week to detail their monetary policies.

On Monday, stocks of Axis Bank will be in focus, as the lender's asset quality deteriorated in Apr-Jun, and net profit came in at 15.5 bln rupees, sharply below the estimated 19.9 bln rupees. The fall,
however, may not be very sharp, as the stock has already factored in weak earnings, ending in the
red for the fourth consecutive session yesterday.

Vedanta and Cairn India will also be in focus on Monday. The former, in an apparent bid to sweeten
the deal for the latter's minority shareholders, approved revised terms for the merger of Cairn India
with Vedanta.

Vedanta said that apart from getting one equity share in the merged entity, Cairn India's minority
shareholders will also get four redeemable preference shares of 10-rupee face value "with a coupon of
7.5% and tenure of 18 months from issuance".Cairn India's minority shareholders will also get an
implied premium of 20% to the one-month volume weighted average price of a Cairn India share.
The deal will see shares of both companies react positively. It is likely to assuage Cairn India's
minority shareholders, while Vedanta stands to benefit from the merger on account of Cairn's cash on
books.

www.rupeedesk.in )

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 25 to 29.07.2016 (To take cues from company earnings next week)

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 25 to 29.07.2016
(To take cues from company earnings next week)
  www.rupeedesk.in )

Automotive stocks are expected to take cues from earnings of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd, Bajaj Auto Ltd and Eicher Motors Ltd, slated to be announced on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Largely, the bias for auto stocks remains positive, given an upswing in sales in the past quarter, on account of good rains.

The CNX Auto Index, which closed flat this week may well test 9500 points if auto majors are able to meet market expectations on their earnings,

Maruti Suzuki is expected to report a muted quarter on account of below par sales given the plant
shutdown for maintenance in the beginning of June. The New Delhi-based passenger car maker is seen reporting a rise of nearly 3% in its bottomline during the Apr-Jun quarter.

Nevertheless, the long-term outlook of the Maruti Suzuki remains positive given the company's strong product pedigree, a healthy order pipeline, and strong fundamentals. Currently, the company has a nine-month waiting period for the Baleno hatchback and a seven month for Vitara Brezza sports
utility vehicle.