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India Market Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016

India Market Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016


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India Market Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016 
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The domestic shares are likely to be volatile next week, with key global and domestic events coming up. Investors will particularly watch out for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review and the outcome of Italy's constitutional referendum. Although Sunday's constitutional referendum in Italy is seen as a non-event by most market participants, any major sell-off in the European markets after the outcome may trigger selling in domestic shares too. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has pledged to resign if the electorate rejects his proposals to bring about changes in the country's Constitution. In the event of Renzi resigning, the Five Star Movement--which favours Italy leaving the European Union--may gain support of Italian voters. If the referendum's outcome in Italy creates political uncertainties in the Eurozone, especially in the financial sector, it is something the market has not discounted. On the domestic front, most market participants expect at least a 25 basis points rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India at its bi-monthly monetary policy on Wednesday, particularly after the government's decision to withdraw the legal tender status of higher denomination currency notes. If the RBI has to provide support, then it should cut rates by 50 bps, in which case the equity market will remain positive until the US Federal Reserve's meet in mid-December," said Vinod Nair. If the rate cut is below 50 bps, then there may be a sell-off in domestic shares. Markets also await US' non-farm payrolls data for November, which will be detailed. The non-farm payrolls data is crucial as it may indicate the future course of action of the US central bank on interest rates in December. Among stock, banks will be in focus as the RBI will detail its monetary policy. Ashoka Buildcon is seen rising on Monday, as the company reported a net profit of 453.4 mln rupees, up from 312.8 mln rupees a year ago. KEC International may also gain as the company has won orders worth 8.40 bln rupees. 

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016


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Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016
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The trend in shares of major telecommunication companies is expected to be stock-specific next week, with the Bharti Airtel Ltd and Idea Cellular Ltd stocks seen positive and Tata Communications Ltd likely to trade with a negative bias. We will keenly track the Monetary Policy Committee's policy review on Wednesday, particularly after the government's decision to withdraw higher denomination currency notes from circulation. Most market participants expect a cut of at least 25 basis points by the Monetary Policy Committee. On technical grounds, the Bharti Airtel stock is on a recovery mode, after it fell on Thursday on news that Reliance Jio Infocomm extended its free services for another three months. The stock might continue in a recovery mode at the beginning of the week. -RJio, a subsidiary of Reliance Industries Ltd, on Thursday extended its free data and voice services till March 31, which resulted in the shares of Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular, and Reliance Communications ending down 2-6% that day. -Competition in the telecom industry, triggered by the new entrant, continues to put pressure on the margins of operators such as Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular. -Most companies have cut tariffs steeply due to the rock-bottom prices that the RIL subsidiary is offering. 

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016


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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016
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The information technology sector is not expected to see major buying next week due to the continued cautious view on the sector and weakness in the broader market. The domestic market is likely to be volatile next week after Sunday's constitutional referendum in Italy, with the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement also due on Wednesday. As investors will once again retain their cautious view on the sector, the technology stocks are seen trading in a thin range and are not expected to witness any major gains or fall. The rupee recovered from its all-time low of 68.86 rupees to a dollar, which it had touched on Nov 24. The Indian currency, which ended at 68.19 yesterday, is seen stable next week. The negative impact from the rupee's recovery is seen being offset by lower valuations of IT stocks and weakening sentiment on other sectors after currency curbs. The government's move to withdraw and replace high-value currency notes from Nov 9 had dealt a heavy blow to consumption stocks such as those of automobile and fast moving consumer goods. The shares of Tata Consultancy Services are seen trading sideways and are likely to fall to 2,040 rupees in two weeks. 

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016


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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016
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The Bank stocks are seen volatile, in line with the broader market, in the coming week because most market participants are expected to be on the sidelines exercising caution ahead of the interest rate decision. The resolution of Monetary Policy Committee after the fifth bi-monthly monetary policy review for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar) will be released at 1430 IST on Wednesday. Other that the interest rate decision, banks will be eyeing the review by the central bank pertaining to the 100% Cash Reserve Ratio on deposits raised between Sep 16 and Nov 11. This move was aimed at sucking out excess liquidity from the banking system following the demonetisation of high-value currency notes of 500 and 1,000 rupees. The RBI is slated to review this on or before Dec 9. The incremental CRR, which impounded around 3.3 trillion rupees of excess liquidity from the banking system, had weighed on bank stocks on concern that that it may weigh on the net interest margins of banks. Market participants also said the government's decision, after market hours today, to suspend and transfer some officials of public sector banks may keep negative sentiment for bank stocks. Action was taken against these officials for carrying out demonetization related transactions which were irregular and in violation of RBI's instructions. On the global front, expectations on rate hike by the US Federal Reserve n its December policy and Sunday's constitutional referendum in Italy may cause volatility in Monday's trading session. The expectation of rate hike in the US cemented after data released by the US Labor Department showed hat 178,000 jobs were added in November. The Wall Street Journal poll has expected about 180,000 additions. 

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016


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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016
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The shares of cement manufacturing companies will track the broader market next week, which may be influenced by Sunday's constitutional referendum in Italy. Italian citizens will vote on constitutional reforms on Sunday in what is seen as the most significant political event in Europe this year, even bigger than Brexit. The cement stocks performed mixed this week, with large-cap stocks such as ACC, Ambuja and UltraTech closing 1-3% higher, while mid-cap stocks India Cements and Shree Cements closed lower 2.4-6.0%. The cement stocks also bore the brunt of the demonetisation of 500- and 1,000-rupee notes, as overall demand and supplies got impacted recently, forcing companies and dealers to cut prices to clear inventories. We believe cement stocks have now bottomed out. But they are likely to trade higher on global triggers. 

Capital Goods Stocks for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016

Capital Goods Stocks for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016


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Capital Goods Stocks for the week – 05 to 09.12.2016
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The shares of capital goods companies are likely to see a correction next week amid weakness in the broader market. We see large-cap stocks such as Larsen & Toubro and Bharat Heavy Electrical trading in a narrow range, while mid-caps such as Voltas and Cummins India are expected to see some buying momentum, after the recent correction in these stocks. The capital goods companies were also seen consolidating because traders were selling every time the stocks pushed higher. Investors are awaiting further evidence of the sector's strength to be reflected in the Industrial Index of Production, data on which is scheduled to be detailed next week. The outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting on Dec 6-7 will also act as a trigger for the shares. The below-par growth in India's GDP for Jul-Sep added to a grim outlook for the sector in the wake of a fall in capital expenditure across industries. For Jul-Sep, capital expenditure contracted 5.6% on year, suggesting that the revival in the investment cycle has not yet take off. Mirroring the weakness in investment activity the gross fixed capital formation recorded a year-on-year contraction in Q2 (Jul-Sep) FY2017 (Apr-Mar), in line with de-growth in output of capital goods and the central government's capital expenditure," said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at ICRA. YES Bank expects further delay in private capital expenditure to weigh on demand for capital goods. Despite the grim for demand in the sector, the BSE capital goods index managed to eke out gains of 0.35% this week. 

India Market Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016

India Market Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016


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After ending the week with a rise for the first time in five weeks, domestic share indices are likely to extend gains next week as technical charts and derivatives trade indicate a trend reversal. Technically, shares have been oversold for the last few weeks due to the impact of currency curbs, indicating an extended bounce back may be very much on the cards. A further rise is seen in the Nifty 50, with a strong support seen at the 8000-point mark because the put option at that strike price holds the maximum open interest. Gains may also be aided by the expectation that the Reserve Bank of India would cut interest rates in its Fifth Bi-Monthly Policy Statement, due on Dec 7. With the withdrawal of old currency notes leading to surging bank deposits and slowdown in consumption, the RBI might cut rates by 25-50 basis points. The Market participants will also keep an eye on global equities amid a strengthening dollar and heightened chances of a rate hike in the US. In the week ahead, the Nifty 50 is likely to test 8250, while a fall could drag it to 7900. The Banking stocks are seen taking the forefront in case of broad market gains. Swelling deposits due to the currency withdrawal and chances of a rate move, both in US and India, have boosted the outlook for the banking sector. Sustained rally in broad markets could also lift Mid-Cap and small cap stocks after they saw sharp declines on fears of a fall in consumption. Shares of metal companies are seen consolidating after witnessing sharp gains over the last few sessions. Profit-booking and sector churning is very much likely in the sector soon. 

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016


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Some more pain may be there in the offing for shares of major automobile companies next week as market bias for the sector remains negative in line with the broader indices. The long-term outlook for the sector has also taken a beating following the withdrawal of high-value currency notes, which has impacted the sales of all automobile companies across segments. The currency curbs, announced Nov 8, led to a shortage of cash with consumers, and broke the momentum that had kept the demand outlook for the auto sector robust for the last three months on the back of good monsoon rains and hiked pay for government employees. The sales of four-wheelers have also been hit, as footfall in showrooms has declined by over 60%. In October, total sales of passenger vehicles in the domestic market had risen to 280,677 units, the highest since March 2012, up 4.5% on year. Faced with high inventories in the wake of declining sales, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations had written to major automobile companies to stop fresh supplies till the time the situation improves.

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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016


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The shares of cement manufacturers are seen rising next week, as the valuations of these stocks have improved on charts, following deep corrections over the past few months. The price correction, which started a few months ago, gained pace following the government's announcement of the withdrawal of high-value currency notes from circulation. Now, however, the stocks have bottomed out. Hence, the stocks are likely to sustain the upward movement next week onwards. We expect some of the stocks in this segment that have higher participation of foreign investors, such as UltraTech Cement, may see a pull-back due to FII sell-off in anticipation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.

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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016


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The stocks of pharmaceutical companies are likely to be mixed next week but the general trend in the sector is expected to be positive as investors may buy some quality stocks with strong fundamentals. The outlook on the pharmaceutical sector over the long term is positive, especially on companies that have a good managerial record and have significant exposure to the US. While there are regulatory issues, the US market provides a significant opportunity to the Indian pharmaceutical segment. Profits for generic drug manufacturers are likely to receive a boost in the US as President-elect Donald Trump has indicated that he wants to bring down the cost of healthcare in the country. The sentiment over the stock has been under pressure after US Food and Drug Administration issued a warning to its UK-based step-down subsidiary CP Pharmaceuticals. While the arm does not export products to the US, it adds to the existing regulatory issues of Wockhardt. The Mumbai-based pharmaceutical company's facility at Ankleshwar in Gujarat is already under an import alert for violations of good manufacturing practices. Next week, market participants may also keep an eye on broader markets, in which the rebound is expected to continue.

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016


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The stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are expected to rise further next week as the cash crunch situation due to demonetisation of 500 and 1,000 rupees notes is seen easing. On Nov 8, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that 500 and 1,000 rupee notes would no longer remain legal tender effective midnight, which slowed down the cash circulation in India. Consequently, the liquidity with FMCG traders and wholesalers remained tight due to which business took a hit. The situation is likely to ease now. FMCG companies and wholesalers have also been extending credit to retailers to ease the working capital deficit being faced. Consumer durable goods such as electronic items and white goods are likely to take the brunt of the hit as consumers are likely to refrain from investing on items of high value in the near term. Spending on essential items will not stop. People, whether in the urban or rural area will not stop eating. The expenditure on premium food and other FMCG products, however, could take a hit as people are shying away from spending on non-essential items.

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IT Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016

IT Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016


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The Continued weakness in the rupee against the dollar and the already beaten-down state of technology stocks are likely to lift sentiment on stocks in the information technology next week. The Market participants are expected to increase their investment in the sector if today's rally in the stocks continues next week. Frontline companies constituting the Nifty IT index ended 5-9%, after witnessing minimal or negligible buying. Though the view on the sector's performance is largely negative, factors such as a weak rupee are seen leading to gains the sector in the near term. Investors will track triggers in global markets, amid a strengthening dollar and heightened chances of a rate hike in the US. On Thursday, the rupee breached its previous record low, hit in August 2013, to fall to 68.86 a dollar because foreign portfolio investors continued to pull out funds from domestic financial markets. The favourable movement in the rupee is seen as providing respite to the IT sector, which includes major software exporters. However, the respite is expected to be temporary, as uncertainties surrounding the likely policies of US President-elect Donald Trump will continue to weigh on the sector, which gets 48-85% of its revenue from the US. Investors are expected to continue to be cautious on the sector, as Trump, during his election campaign, had promised stringent norms on immigration and trade, which are likely to hurt the earnings of Indian IT companies.

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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016


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Bank stocks are seen trading with a positive bias next week, with gains made by public sector banks weighing over the losses made by their private peers. The Public sector banks will benefit from the recent demonetisation of high-value currency notes as they will be able to earn spread on deposits of the now-invalid notes which will flow into the banks till the end of the year. The Banks will post gains from profit booking in the sale of government securities as the yields are at lowest levels. Lower credit off take during Jul-Sep was mostly on account of deleveraging of corporate and lower funding requirements. However, loan growth is expected to rise in a gradual manner in the coming months. The Rate action is expected from the Reserve Bank of India in its upcoming RBI (Reserve Bank of India) meeting as demonetisation has opened scope for substantial rate cuts. The Monetary Policy Committee will meet for the Fifth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy meeting on Dec 6-7. It is better to wait at the sidelines, let things stabilise as a lot is going on within the banking and finance space at the moment. Among individual stocks, ICICI Bank, which fell 1.7% during the week, may see further correction as there were many positions added on the short side in the rollover in the previous week. Bank of Baroda, a major gainer during the week, is expected to rise further in the coming week as several long positions added in the rollover. YES Bank will be a major beneficiary of the currency withdrawal as it has significant bulk deposits, which are likely to come down further as deposits in banks rises.

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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week - 28.11.2016 to 02.12.2016


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The shares of capital goods companies are likely to correct further in the forthcoming week, in line with the tepid trend in the wider market and due to the absence of any significant triggers. The Decent Jul-Sep earnings of engineering behemoth Larsen and Toubro and Siemens failed to lift sentiment for the sector amid the grim broader scenario. Earlier this week, sector bellwether L&T reported a modest 8.5% on-year rise in consolidated net sales for the September quarter to 249.24 bln rupees, as sales in the infrastructure segment grew a mere 3.7% to 115.97 bln rupees.

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016


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With equities posting their longest losing streak since August, 2015, the underlying sentiment remains weak as foreign fund outflows continue due to the expected negative implication of currency curbs, and US interest rate hike fears. Yesterday, benchmark indices marked the fourth straight week of declines to end at their lowest levels in six months. The 50-share Nifty 50 closed down 5.85 points, or 0.1% at 8074.10 and the 30- share BSE Sensex closed down by 77.38 points, or 0.3% at 26150.24, marking its fifth consecutive session of losses. Despite the losses that equities registered since the government's decision on Nov 8 to withdraw and replace highdenomination currency notes, Nifty 50 has managed to trade above the 8000- mark. 8000 was a very strong support level for Nifty 50 and it has managed not to break it. So, we see expiry at 8200-8250 levels. The November futures and options series will expire on Thursday. Although recovery is expected, they do not see any major gains for stocks. Prospects of earnings downgrade for Oct-Mar due to the impact of currency curbs on domestic consumption and consequently on corporate profits and a near certainty of the US Fed raising interest rates in December has triggered capital outflows from Indian equities. Economists have sharply cut their GDP growth estimates for the current and the next financial year to factor in the hit from currency curbs.

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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016


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Bank stocks are seen gaining next week, mainly led by public sector banks which are expected to continue their rise. Nifty Bank is expected to find support near 18800-18300 levels and resistance at 19400-20000 levels. Yesterday, the banking index ended at 18959.05, down 3.4% on week. The government's move to withdraw 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee banknotes from circulation last week has led to a surge in deposits in the public sector banks as people deposited the now-invalid notes in banks. The build-up of higher deposits is seen positive for banks as they are likely to report higher net interest margins and profitability. State Bank of India, the country's largest bank, saw its deposits rise by 1.27 trln rupees till Thursday after the government withdrew the legal tender status of 500- and 1,000-rupee notes last week. Punjab National Bank has received 420 bln rupees since the official announcement.

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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016


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Stocks of major automobile companies are likely to see further correction next week, in line with broader indices, as the market bias remains Negative. In the longer term, outlook for the sector has taken a beating after the withdrawal of 500-, 1000-rupee currency notes last week, as the move it seen impacting sales of all automobile companies across segments. Over the last three months, factors such as pay increases for government employees and a good monsoon this year had played a major role in keeping the demand outlook for the auto sector robust. However, the momentum seems to be running out of steam after the government withdrew old 500-, 1000-rupee notes on Nov 8, resulting in an unprecedented cash crunch scenario. In October, total passenger vehicle sales in the domestic market had risen to 280,677 units, the highest since March 2012, up 4.5% on year. The CNX Auto index, which ended down 3.5% on week at 8983.85 points yesterday, may fall further over the next few sessions. The initial support for the index is seen at 8830-8750 levels and if it breaches that level, it can slip by 7-8%. Resistance for the index is seen at 9000-9050 levels. Stocks of two-wheeler companies are also seen correcting as most of them have entered overbought category.

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I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016

I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016


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Stocks of information technology companies are seen trading in a narrow range next week on persisting after-effects of the US presidential elections. Uncertainties surrounding the likely policies of US President-elect Donald Trump are seen weighing on the sector that gets 48-85% of its revenue from investors are expected to continue their cautious view on the sector. Trump, during his campaign, had promised stringent immigration and trade norms, which are likely to hurt earnings of Indian IT companies. Considering all, it makes sense avoiding IT space till clarity emerges. We expect it will trade with side ways to bearish bias in near-term. Even though investment sentiment is seen largely weak, the domestic market is expected to recover next week after closing at its lowest levels in nearly six months. Additionally, the Indian currency, which ended at 68.13 rupees to a dollar, is expected to further weaken next week. This might bring some respite to the sector that constitutes of large software exporters. However, do not expect the rupee to impact the sector as globally software exports are likely to weaken.

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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016


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Investors will continue to trade in stocks of pharmaceutical companies based on their earnings, and the stocks are likely to decline next week as demonetization continues to curb spending in the short-term. Demonetization in India is unlikely to have any material impact on domestic business in our view, except possible trade disruptions in the near term. In the short term, any minor pullback should be used as an opportunity to sell pharmaceutical companies. However, over the long term, the view on pharmaceutical stocks is bullish We believe the long term outlook for Indian healthcare sector remains structurally positive, considering abundant growth opportunities, strong balance sheets, higher return ratios and free cash flow generation in pharma companies and reasonable valuations. The Republican nominee's victory, they believe, will aid Indian pharmaceutical companies' earnings in the long term.

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Capital Good Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016

Capital Good Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016


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Stocks of capital goods companies are expected to fall further next week, tracking
the grim broader market. However, favorable earnings announcement of sector
heavyweight Larsen and Toubro Ltd and Siemens could boost sentiment to some
extent in the latter part of the week. Capital goods stocks fell 1.5-7.5% during
the week, while the BSE Capital Goods index declined 2.2%.
All eyes will be on earnings of Larsen and Toubro next week. A good show can
provide some momentary relief to the sector amid the volatile situation. Sector
bellwether L&T will detail its earnings for the September quarter on Tuesday

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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016


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Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are seen under pressure next week as a cash crunch following a demonetisation order of the government has hit retail sales. On Nov 8, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that 500-, and 1,000-rupee notes would no longer remain legal tender. Even the exchange process of invalid notes has been slow and this reduced the cash in circulation. Consequently, business across sectors has declined in the range of 30-80% in the first five days. The expenditure on premium FMCG products has taken the brunt of this hit as people are shying away from spending on non-essential items. The footfall in malls, restaurants, showrooms and other such places has taken a hit. Among major FMCG companies, Hindustan Unilever Ltd, ITC Ltd, Britannia Industries Ltd and Dabur India Ltd could face more pressure as these companies have a deep rural presence. ITC has been under pressure as sales have taken a hit of up to 40% in the past 10 days.

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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016


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Stocks of major metal and mining companies are seen rebounding next week after a sell-off in the last few trading sessions. The Nifty Metal index yesterday underperformed the broader market on fears that the dollar's rise against the euro as well as the rupee would make it tougher for domestic metal producers to maintain their profit margin and exports. With the gains in dollar, the import cost of metallurgical coke key raw material for steelmakers--would shoot up. Indian metal exports to Europe are likely to take a hit due to a weak euro against the dollar. The US dollar rose after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the US economy is strong enough to withstand a near-term interest rate hike.

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Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 21 to 25.11.2016

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Stocks of telecommunication companies are seen trading in a range with a
negative bias next week as rising competition in the market has led to growth
challenges.
The entry of Reliance Industries' telecom arm Reliance Jio Infocomm has created
several uncertainties regarding growth of domestic telecom companies. Even
though investment sentiment is seen largely weak, domestic markets are
expected to recover next week after closing at their lowest levels in nearly six
months. The stocks of telecom companies are not expected to witness significant
gain or fall during the next five sessions.
The government's move to withdraw legal tender status of 500- and 1,000-
Rupee currency notes are also seen impacting the growth of these companies.
However, the extent of this impact is yet to be measured. While utilisation of
data services has increased since the announcement of currency demonetization
on Nov 8, telecom companies have registered a fall in purchase of recharge packs
by prepaid customers due to currency crunch.

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016
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 Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016
Domestic share indices are seen weak because of uncertainty in the global markets, impact of
currency curb move and Jul-Sep corporate earnings. Stock indices ended the week at their lowest
closing levels since the end of June. On Monday, local share markets will be closed on account of
Guru Nanak Jayanti.

Release of inflation data for October next week, and industrial production data for September,
released today, will also lend cues to investor sentiment. Industrial production in September grew
only 0.7% as against 3.7% growth a year ago. It, though, managed to beat the estimate of 0.5%.
Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (Combined) and that based on the Wholesale Price
Index will be released on Tuesday after market hours. The CPI inflation rate is seen falling to a 14-
month low of 4.1% in October from 4.31% in September, according to the median of a poll of 22
economists. The WPI inflation rate is seen at 3.7% in October compared with 3.57% a month ago,
according to a median of a poll of 14 economists.

Stocks of consumption related companies such as fast moving consumer good companies and
automobile companies will continue to be under pressure, as the Government’s decision to
demonetize high denomination currency notes is likely to negatively impact their sales in Oct-Dec.
Right now people are wary of buying anything...they are trying to retain cash. However, these stocks
may see a consolidation next week, after the recent fall, as the likelihood of a decline in demand is
mostly priced in now.

Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended at 8296.30, down 229.45 points or 2.7% from the Previous close, and
the Sensex closed down 698.86 points or 2.5% at 26818.82. Next week, Nifty 50 is seen moving in
the range of 8200-8500 points on only technical based. We do not see any relief amid looming
uncertainty on the global front and not so encouraging domestic cues. So, we are suggest restricting
leveraged positions and wait for the markets to stabilise first.

Interest rate-sensitive stocks such as banks will also remain in focus as prospects of an interest rate
hike in the US increased after the election of Donald Trump as the US president. Trump's policies
are seen stoking inflation in the US, which may lead the US Federal Reserve to raise rates.
Stocks of Nifty 50 companies detailing their earnings later yesterday, on Saturday and next week
will also take centre stage next week. Tata Motors, Aurobindo Pharma and GAIL (India) will detail
their earnings next week, while Hindalco Industries, Tata Steel and Bharat Petroleum Corp has
report their earnings yesterday and on Saturday.

Stocks of Bank of Baroda eyed on Tuesday as the company detailed its Jul-Sep earnings yesterday.
The lender's net profit rose to 5.5 bln from 1.2 bln rupees a year ago and its provisioning for nonperforming
assets went down 11.6% on year to 16.3 bln rupees. Stocks of IL&FS Engineering and
Construction Co are likely to gain as the company secured 1.49-bln-rupee order from the Uttar

Pradesh government.

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 18.11.2016
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Pharmaceutical stocks are likely to remain rangebound next week as investors will look for clues on
growth of the generic drug industry after Donald Trump won the US presidential election.
Pharmaceutical stocks may continue to feel the impact of a bearish market sentiment as the future
of Obamacare, incumbent President Barack Obama's signature health law, looks bleak. A cut in
budget allocation for the healthcare programme might hit the Indian pharmaceutical industry,
which contributes 40-50% of the generic drugs supply in the US.

Pharmaceutical stocks, which generally do not exhibit such movement, have been volatile over the
entire week as investors eyed the US presidential Elections. The stocks look neutral with downward
bias in the next week. Sun Pharma, which reported a 117% on-year rise in Jul-Sep consolidated net
profit at 22.3 bln rupees on Friday.

However, see volatility in pharmaceutical stocks as a result of an overall poor market sentiment and
earnings season. Around 40% of the generic medicine supply to the US goes from India as the
latter is a low-cost manufacturing base. Thus, any disruption in this segment will have some effect
on the industry.

Interestingly, shares of pharmaceutical companies had risen after Trump won the US presidential
election on Wednesday on some relief as his opponent Democrat Hillary Clinton's policies towards

the generic drug industry were seen as a negative for the sector.